June 26 MLB Odds

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	32	40	0.0	0.2	75.2
Boston	44	28	63.0	24.8	97.4
New York (A)	40	32	25.0	39.2	93.5
Tampa Bay	39	35	11.1	27.9	89.9
Toronto	40	34	1.0	4.6	84.2
Chicago (A)	35	37	4.5	0.1	76.2
Cleveland	30	44	6.9	0.2	75.2
Detroit	41	31	65.5	0.4	86.0
Kansas City	31	40	2.0	0.1	73.3
Minnesota	37	37	21.1	0.5	79.9
Los Angeles (A)	38	32	62.3	0.6	85.7
Oakland	31	40	5.6	0.2	75.8
Seattle	37	35	17.1	0.7	80.6
Texas	39	32	15.0	0.5	80.1
	W	L	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	34	38	11.6	5.3	81.3
Florida	38	36	5.4	2.6	78.8
New York (N)	37	34	46.8	11.5	87.4
Philadelphia	37	33	36.2	11.3	85.5
Washington	21	49	0.0	0.0	63.2
Chicago (N)	34	35	32.2	11.4	84.2
Cincinnati	35	36	5.0	3.1	77.4
Houston	33	37	0.8	0.6	73.1
Milwaukee	38	34	20.4	8.3	82.7
Pittsburgh	33	39	0.6	0.3	71.5
St. Louis	40	34	41.1	10.6	85.0
Arizona	30	43	0.4	1.7	74.9
Colorado	37	35	2.5	10.4	80.3
Los Angeles (N)	47	26	92.3	4.1	95.7
San Diego	31	40	0.1	0.7	72.0
San Francisco	39	32	4.7	18.1	82.4

April 9 MLB Odds

Due to some Excel issues, these numbers aren't totally consistent with yesterday's.

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	2	0	1.1	3.3	76.5
Boston	1	1	38.2	28.6	94.8
New York (A)	0	2	38.8	27.7	95.0
Tampa Bay	1	1	20.6	25.3	90.8
Toronto	2	1	1.2	3.2	76.4
Chicago (A)	1	1	6.7	0.5	73.6
Cleveland	0	2	39.5	2.1	84.5
Detroit	1	2	28.4	1.8	82.3
Kansas City	1	1	9.1	0.8	75.5
Minnesota	2	1	16.2	1.2	78.7
Los Angeles (A)	1	2	42.4	1.8	84.2
Oakland	2	1	32.2	2.0	82.3
Seattle	1	2	19.1	1.2	78.7
Texas	2	0	6.2	0.4	72.4
	W	L	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	2	1	29.3	13.4	86.9
Florida	3	0	2.6	1.9	73.7
New York (N)	2	0	43.5	13.4	89.8
Philadelphia	1	2	23.0	12.2	85.4
Washington	0	3	1.6	1.4	71.7
Chicago (N)	2	1	61.0	9.6	92.3
Cincinnati	0	2	5.7	4.0	77.2
Houston	1	2	1.1	1.2	71.0
Milwaukee	1	1	16.2	10.6	83.0
Pittsburgh	2	1	0.7	0.7	69.1
St. Louis	1	2	15.3	9.7	82.8
Arizona	1	2	26.4	7.0	83.8
Colorado	2	1	8.0	2.7	77.0
Los Angeles (N)	2	1	50.4	6.8	88.4
San Diego	1	2	4.3	1.6	73.7
San Francisco	1	1	10.9	3.9	78.5

April 8 MLB Odds

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	1	0	1.1	2.9	75.5
Boston	1	0	39.1	28.4	95.0
New York (A)	0	1	40.5	29.1	96.2
Tampa Bay	0	1	18.2	24.9	90.9
Toronto	2	0	1.2	3.4	76.2
Chicago (A)	1	0	7.6	0.5	73.5
Cleveland	0	1	43.1	1.8	85.5
Detroit	0	2	26.4	1.9	82.5
Kansas City	0	1	8.9	0.8	75.4
Minnesota	1	1	14.0	1.1	77.9
Los Angeles (A)	1	1	43.6	2.0	84.6
Oakland	1	1	29.8	1.7	81.7
Seattle	1	1	20.8	1.1	79.0
Texas	1	0	5.7	0.3	71.3
	W	L	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	2	0	31.7	13.9	85.6
Florida	2	0	2.4	1.8	71.6
New York (N)	1	0	42.2	13.3	88.1
Philadelphia	0	2	21.7	12.2	85.4
Washington	0	2	1.9	1.3	72.7
Chicago (N)	1	1	58.2	10.1	90.7
Cincinnati	0	1	6.8	4.3	77.2
Houston	1	1	1.8	1.2	70.4
Milwaukee	0	1	15.3	8.8	81.7
Pittsburgh	1	1	0.8	0.6	67.1
St. Louis	1	1	17.2	10.0	82.3
Arizona	1	1	28.7	7.5	83.6
Colorado	1	1	8.1	2.5	75.3
Los Angeles (N)	1	1	46.2	7.2	86.9
San Diego	1	1	4.5	1.5	73.1
San Francisco	1	0	12.6	3.8	77.6

April 7 MLB Odds

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	1	0	1.0	2.6	75.5
Boston	0	0	38.2	28.5	95.0
New York (A)	0	1	40.2	28.4	96.2
Tampa Bay	0	0	19.6	25.2	90.9
Toronto	1	0	1.1	3.3	76.2
Chicago (A)	0	0	6.6	0.6	73.5
Cleveland	0	1	43.5	1.9	85.5
Detroit	0	1	27.3	1.9	82.5
Kansas City	0	0	9.2	0.8	75.4
Minnesota	0	1	13.5	1.0	77.9
Los Angeles (A)	1	0	46.0	2.2	84.6
Oakland	0	1	28.0	1.8	81.7
Seattle	1	0	20.9	1.3	79.0
Texas	1	0	5.0	0.4	71.3
	W	L	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	1	0	29.2	12.9	85.6
Florida	1	0	2.3	1.3	71.6
New York (N)	1	0	42.0	12.3	88.1
Philadelphia	0	1	24.4	11.5	85.4
Washington	0	1	2.2	1.5	72.7
Chicago (N)	1	0	61.0	9.5	90.7
Cincinnati	0	1	5.7	4.6	77.2
Houston	0	1	1.2	1.0	70.4
Milwaukee	0	0	15.9	9.8	81.7
Pittsburgh	1	0	0.7	0.5	67.1
St. Louis	0	1	15.5	10.2	82.3
Arizona	1	0	30.6	8.1	83.6
Colorado	0	1	6.3	2.6	75.3
Los Angeles (N)	1	0	48.5	8.0	86.9
San Diego	0	1	3.7	1.8	73.1
San Francisco	0	0	10.9	4.4	77.6

The 2009 Season, Simulated (CHONE)

(Read the intro to this series.)

This post comes a little late, but work is busy this time of year. On the plus side, while you were all waiting with baited breath, ReplacementLevel.com released this year's Diamond Mind projections. The standard deviation for each team? You guessed it, about six games.

Since the goal is to compare playoff odds against the ideal model, I'm going to brazenly steal the RS/RA outputs from the ReplacementLevel.com CHONE projections. Here's what we come up with in 10,000 simulations for each:

First run: With normal levels of uncertainty. This is as accurate as we can get in the real world:


Second run: "Ideal" projections:

The 2009 Season, Simulated (Hardball Times)

(Read the intro to this series.)

Inputs: Runs scored and allowed taken from here, then adjusted for each team's strength of schedule.

Methods: xlsSports playoff simulator. The standard deviation for each team's winning percentage is set to .035 for the first simulation, and zero for the second. 10,000 seasons were simulated for each run.

First run: With normal levels of uncertainty. This is as accurate as we can get in the real world:

Second run: "Ideal" projections:


Of note: since we ran 10,000 projections instead of 100, the A's pull ahead of the Angels with their better run differential, the gap between the Yankees and Red Sox narrows considerably, and the Braves now win the division more often than the Phillies, as they should.

March 19 WBC Update

Team	WBC%
Jap	24.3
Kor	13.2
USA	43.6
Ven	19.0