Saturday, October 3, 2009

October 3 Playoff Odds


W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Boston 93 67
100.0 94.4 30.6 20.5
New York (A) 102 58 100.0
103.1 46.9 33.5








Detroit 85 75 82.3
86.0 7.6 3.4
Minnesota 84 76 17.7
85.1 0.8 0.3








Los Angeles (A) 95 65 100.0
96.0 14.1 7.3









W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Philadelphia 92 68 100.0
93.2 30.2 11.3








St. Louis 91 69 100.0
92.2 24.1 8.4








Colorado 92 68 17.2 82.8 92.8 16.4 4.5
Los Angeles (N) 93 67 82.8 17.2 94.2 29.3 11.0









HFA%




Philadelphia 5.4





St. Louis 0.0





Colorado 11.8





Los Angeles
82.8





Thursday, October 1, 2009

NL Home-Field Advantage Race: Oct. 2

Philadelphia 13.8
St. Louis 2.6
Colorado 2.8
Los Angeles
80.8

October 2 Playoff Odds


W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Boston 91 67
100.0 93.7 30.2 20.2
New York (A) 102 57 100.0
103.6 46.2 33.0








Detroit 85 74 92.6
86.5 8.5 3.7
Minnesota 83 76 7.4
84.7 0.3 0.1








Los Angeles (A) 94 64 100.0
96.2 14.7 7.6









W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Philadelphia 92 66 100.0
94.4 30.2 11.3








St. Louis 91 68 100.0
93.3 24.2 8.5








Colorado 91 68 7.5 92.5 92.3 16.1 4.5
Los Angeles (N) 93 66 92.5 7.5 94.7 29.4 11.1

October 1 Playoff Odds

Well, the playoff races are basically over. That just means we can spend Sunday focusing on the NFL.


W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Boston 91 67
100.0 93.7 30.3 20.2
New York (A) 102 57 100.0
103.6 46.0 32.9








Detroit 85 73 96.2
87.0 8.8 3.9
Minnesota 82 76 3.8
84.2 0.2 0.1








Los Angeles (A) 94 64 100.0
96.2 14.7 7.6









W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Atlanta 86 72
1.1 88.8 0.3 0.1
Philadelphia 92 66 100.0
94.4 30.0 11.2








St. Louis 90 68 100.0
92.8 24.7 8.6








Colorado 90 68 4.5 94.4 91.9 15.8 4.4
Los Angeles (N) 93 66 95.5 4.5 94.7 29.3 11.0

Tunnel Vision

Rob Neyer seems confident that the Yankees will opt for the division series schedule that gives them a three-man starting rotation--keeping Joba Chamberlain out of the mix--and he's probably right. But is it the right move for New York?

The three-man rotation effectively takes a start from Joba and gives it to Andy Pettitte. I don't believe Pettitte is a significantly better pitcher than Joba, but Chamberlain's August and September stats would scare any manager away. For the sake of argument, let's say Pettitte is the stronger pitcher right now. Why shouldn't the Yankees then choose the three-man rotation? Because we're not considering the other consequences:

a) The Tigers also get to use only three starting pitchers
b) The different rotation setup could affect availability for the ALCS
c) Each team can now use its fourth starter out of the bullpen

The last point clearly favors New York--who cares if Nate Robertson or Eddie Bonine is available for mopup work?--but a) and b) are hurting the Yankees plenty. By opting for the three-man rotation, the Yankees are converting a Robertson/Bonine start into an Edwin Jackson start. Jackson isn't as good as his current 3.36 ERA, but he is far better than the alternatives. Detroit gains much more from a second Jackson start than the Yankees do from a second Pettitte start.

The three-man rotation could also derail the pitching setup for the ALCS. Unless the Yankees sweep the division series, C.C. Sabathia will need to start twice, killing any chance of him pitching three ALCS games. With a four-man rotation, the Yankees simply need to dispatch Detroit in four games or less, which they will do 53% of the time by my estimates.

Even with regards to c)...after Joba's performance in August and September, can you see the Yankees using him in the late innings of a tight October game? Very unlikely. Furthermore, New York's two most prominent bullpen roles are already locked down. At most, Chamberlain will be a seventh-inning pitcher, and those just aren't that valuable.

If the Yankees choose this schedule solely to boot Joba from the ALDS rotation, they're not seeing the full picture.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

September 30 MLB Odds


W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Boston 91 66
100.0 94.4 30.2 20.2
New York (A) 102 56 100.0
104.3 46.5 33.2








Detroit 84 73 87.2
86.7 8.0 3.5
Minnesota 82 75 12.8
84.5 0.6 0.2








Los Angeles (A) 93 64 100.0
95.8 14.7 7.5









W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Atlanta 86 71 0.0 10.7 89.4 2.7 1.0
Philadelphia 91 66 100.0 0.0 94.1 29.1 10.9








St. Louis 90 67 100.0
93.4 24.8 8.7








Colorado 89 68 1.0 88.4 91.4 14.2 4.0
Los Angeles (N) 93 65 99.0 1.0 95.4 29.2 10.9
San Francisco 83 73
0.1 86.7 0.0 0.0

Monday, September 28, 2009

September 29 MLB Odds


W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Boston 91 65
100.0 95.0 30.2 20.1
New York (A) 101 56 100.0
104.0 46.6 33.2








Detroit 83 72 84.3
86.8 7.7 3.4
Minnesota 81 74 15.7
84.4 0.7 0.2








Los Angeles (A) 92 64 100.0
95.3 14.7 7.5
Texas 85 71
0.0 88.7 0.0 0.0









W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Atlanta 86 70 1.0 27.6 89.8 7.2 2.7
Florida 83 74
0.0 85.1 0.0 0.0
Philadelphia 90 66 99.0 0.6 93.7 27.8 10.4








Chicago (N) 81 74
0.0 85.4 0.0 0.0
St. Louis 90 66 100.0
93.9 24.9 8.7








Colorado 88 68 0.9 70.7 91.0 11.4 3.2
Los Angeles (N) 93 64 99.1 0.9 96.0 28.7 10.8
San Francisco 83 73
0.1 86.2 0.0 0.0