MLB Playoff Odds

October 3 Playoff Odds

2009-10-03T00:52:00.001-07:00

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Pr W	Lg%	WS%
Boston	93	67		100.0	94.4	30.6	20.5
New York (A)	102	58	100.0		103.1	46.9	33.5

Detroit	85	75	82.3		86.0	7.6	3.4
Minnesota	84	76	17.7		85.1	0.8	0.3

Los Angeles (A)	95	65	100.0		96.0	14.1	7.3

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Pr W	Lg%	WS%
Philadelphia	92	68	100.0		93.2	30.2	11.3

St. Louis	91	69	100.0		92.2	24.1	8.4

Colorado	92	68	17.2	82.8	92.8	16.4	4.5
Los Angeles (N)	93	67	82.8	17.2	94.2	29.3	11.0

	HFA%
Philadelphia	5.4
St. Louis	0.0
Colorado	11.8
Los Angeles	82.8

NL Home-Field Advantage Race: Oct. 2

2009-10-01T23:22:00.001-07:00

Philadelphia	13.8
St. Louis	2.6
Colorado	2.8
Los Angeles	80.8

October 2 Playoff Odds

2009-10-01T15:52:00.000-07:00

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Pr W	Lg%	WS%
Boston	91	67		100.0	93.7	30.2	20.2
New York (A)	102	57	100.0		103.6	46.2	33.0

Detroit	85	74	92.6		86.5	8.5	3.7
Minnesota	83	76	7.4		84.7	0.3	0.1

Los Angeles (A)	94	64	100.0		96.2	14.7	7.6

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Pr W	Lg%	WS%
Philadelphia	92	66	100.0		94.4	30.2	11.3

St. Louis	91	68	100.0		93.3	24.2	8.5

Colorado	91	68	7.5	92.5	92.3	16.1	4.5
Los Angeles (N)	93	66	92.5	7.5	94.7	29.4	11.1

October 1 Playoff Odds

2009-10-01T02:00:00.000-07:00

Well, the playoff races are basically over. That just means we can spend Sunday focusing on the NFL.

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Pr W	Lg%	WS%
Boston	91	67		100.0	93.7	30.3	20.2
New York (A)	102	57	100.0		103.6	46.0	32.9

Detroit	85	73	96.2		87.0	8.8	3.9
Minnesota	82	76	3.8		84.2	0.2	0.1

Los Angeles (A)	94	64	100.0		96.2	14.7	7.6

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Pr W	Lg%	WS%
Atlanta	86	72		1.1	88.8	0.3	0.1
Philadelphia	92	66	100.0		94.4	30.0	11.2

St. Louis	90	68	100.0		92.8	24.7	8.6

Colorado	90	68	4.5	94.4	91.9	15.8	4.4
Los Angeles (N)	93	66	95.5	4.5	94.7	29.3	11.0

Tunnel Vision

2009-10-01T01:33:00.001-07:00

Rob Neyer seems confident that the Yankees will opt for the division series schedule that gives them a three-man starting rotation--keeping Joba Chamberlain out of the mix--and he's probably right. But is it the right move for New York?

The three-man rotation effectively takes a start from Joba and gives it to Andy Pettitte. I don't believe Pettitte is a significantly better pitcher than Joba, but Chamberlain's August and September stats would scare any manager away. For the sake of argument, let's say Pettitte is the stronger pitcher right now. Why shouldn't the Yankees then choose the three-man rotation? Because we're not considering the other consequences:

a) The Tigers also get to use only three starting pitchers
b) The different rotation setup could affect availability for the ALCS
c) Each team can now use its fourth starter out of the bullpen

The last point clearly favors New York--who cares if Nate Robertson or Eddie Bonine is available for mopup work?--but a) and b) are hurting the Yankees plenty. By opting for the three-man rotation, the Yankees are converting a Robertson/Bonine start into an Edwin Jackson start. Jackson isn't as good as his current 3.36 ERA, but he is far better than the alternatives. Detroit gains much more from a second Jackson start than the Yankees do from a second Pettitte start.

The three-man rotation could also derail the pitching setup for the ALCS. Unless the Yankees sweep the division series, C.C. Sabathia will need to start twice, killing any chance of him pitching three ALCS games. With a four-man rotation, the Yankees simply need to dispatch Detroit in four games or less, which they will do 53% of the time by my estimates.

Even with regards to c)...after Joba's performance in August and September, can you see the Yankees using him in the late innings of a tight October game? Very unlikely. Furthermore, New York's two most prominent bullpen roles are already locked down. At most, Chamberlain will be a seventh-inning pitcher, and those just aren't that valuable.

If the Yankees choose this schedule solely to boot Joba from the ALDS rotation, they're not seeing the full picture.

September 30 MLB Odds

2009-09-29T22:40:00.000-07:00

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Pr W	Lg%	WS%
Boston	91	66		100.0	94.4	30.2	20.2
New York (A)	102	56	100.0		104.3	46.5	33.2

Detroit	84	73	87.2		86.7	8.0	3.5
Minnesota	82	75	12.8		84.5	0.6	0.2

Los Angeles (A)	93	64	100.0		95.8	14.7	7.5

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Pr W	Lg%	WS%
Atlanta	86	71	0.0	10.7	89.4	2.7	1.0
Philadelphia	91	66	100.0	0.0	94.1	29.1	10.9

St. Louis	90	67	100.0		93.4	24.8	8.7

Colorado	89	68	1.0	88.4	91.4	14.2	4.0
Los Angeles (N)	93	65	99.0	1.0	95.4	29.2	10.9
San Francisco	83	73		0.1	86.7	0.0	0.0

September 29 MLB Odds

2009-09-28T22:51:00.001-07:00

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Pr W	Lg%	WS%
Boston	91	65		100.0	95.0	30.2	20.1
New York (A)	101	56	100.0		104.0	46.6	33.2

Detroit	83	72	84.3		86.8	7.7	3.4
Minnesota	81	74	15.7		84.4	0.7	0.2

Los Angeles (A)	92	64	100.0		95.3	14.7	7.5
Texas	85	71		0.0	88.7	0.0	0.0

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Pr W	Lg%	WS%
Atlanta	86	70	1.0	27.6	89.8	7.2	2.7
Florida	83	74		0.0	85.1	0.0	0.0
Philadelphia	90	66	99.0	0.6	93.7	27.8	10.4

Chicago (N)	81	74		0.0	85.4	0.0	0.0
St. Louis	90	66	100.0		93.9	24.9	8.7

Colorado	88	68	0.9	70.7	91.0	11.4	3.2
Los Angeles (N)	93	64	99.1	0.9	96.0	28.7	10.8
San Francisco	83	73		0.1	86.2	0.0	0.0

September 28 MLB Odds

2009-09-27T17:02:00.001-07:00

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Pr W	Lg%	WS%
Boston	91	64		100.0	95.7	30.2	20.1
New York (A)	100	56	100.0		103.7	46.7	33.2

Detroit	83	72	84.3		86.8	7.7	3.4
Minnesota	81	74	15.7		84.4	0.7	0.2

Los Angeles (A)	91	64	99.4	0.0	94.9	14.6	7.5
Texas	85	70	0.6	0.0	89.1	0.0	0.0

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Pr W	Lg%	WS%
Atlanta	85	70	0.3	21.0	89.5	5.3	2.0
Florida	83	73	0.0	0.0	85.4	0.0	0.0
Philadelphia	90	65	99.7	0.2	94.3	28.4	10.6

Chicago (N)	81	74		0.0	85.4	0.0	0.0
St. Louis	90	66	100.0		93.9	24.8	8.6

Colorado	88	68	0.4	78.3	91.0	12.6	3.5
Los Angeles (N)	93	63	99.6	0.4	96.6	28.9	10.8
San Francisco	83	73		0.1	86.2	0.0	0.0

September 27 MLB Odds

2009-09-26T22:25:00.001-07:00

Now that there are two actual races to watch, I'll try to move back to daily updates.

Does anyone know how MLB will decide who hosts a potential Colorado-Atlanta playoff for the Wild Card? I recall reading that they're trying to use head-to-head record as the determining factor, but the teams split the season series 4-4.

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Pr W	Lg%	WS%
Boston	91	63	0.0	100.0	96.1	30.1	19.3
New York (A)	99	56	100.0	0.0	103.2	46.2	32.0

Detroit	83	71	85.4	0.0	87.4	8.3	3.9
Minnesota	81	73	14.6	0.0	84.8	0.7	0.3

Los Angeles (A)	90	64	99.1	0.0	94.5	14.7	8.0
Texas	85	69	0.9	0.0	88.6	0.1	0.0

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Pr W	Lg%	WS%
Atlanta	84	70	0.7	23.6	89.1	6.2	2.5
Florida	83	72	0.0	0.6	86.0	0.1	0.0
Philadelphia	89	65	99.3	0.4	93.9	27.3	9.8

Chicago (N)	81	73		0.2	85.9	0.0	0.0
St. Louis	90	65	100.0		94.4	25.1	8.6

Colorado	87	68	0.1	75.0	90.5	12.2	3.4
Los Angeles (N)	93	62	99.9	0.1	97.2	29.1	11.1
San Francisco	82	73		0.1	85.7	0.0	0.0

September 19 Playoff Odds

2009-09-19T01:43:00.000-07:00

I keep meaning to post regularly, but keep falling behind schedule. Also, six teams have already punched their postseason tickets, so this isn't the most interesting race.

What prompted today's update? A recent Keith Law chat:

James (Charlotte)
What are the chances of the Tigers beating the Yankees should they end up meeting in the 1st round?

Keith Law (1:32 PM)
45%.

Keith Law knows more about baseball than I do, but clearly he knows less about probability*. No sane person would put the Tigers' chances above 30% barring a major injury in the next couple weeks. The baseball playoffs are set up so the best team often doesn't bring home the hardware, but changing that would require playoff series so long that nobody would watch. Let's stop making October sound like just a string of seven coin flips.

* Or perhaps this is an attempt at hyperbole and nobody realizes it.

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Pr W	Lg%	WS%
Baltimore	60	87	0.0	0.0	66.7	0.0	0.0
Boston	87	59	3.5	96.5	96.6	28.7	19.0
New York (A)	94	54	96.5	3.5	102.2	45.1	32.2
Tampa Bay	75	73	0.0	0.0	82.9	0.0	0.0
Toronto	66	81	0.0	0.0	73.3	0.0	0.0

Chicago (A)	72	76	1.8	0.0	79.6	0.3	0.1
Cleveland	61	86	0.0	0.0	67.9	0.0	0.0
Detroit	78	69	87.4	0.0	85.8	8.8	4.3
Kansas City	60	87	0.0	0.0	66.4	0.0	0.0
Minnesota	75	72	10.8	0.0	81.8	0.8	0.3

Los Angeles (A)	88	59	99.5	0.0	96.0	16.2	9.1
Oakland	69	78	0.0	0.0	76.2	0.0	0.0
Seattle	77	71	0.0	0.0	83.2	0.0	0.0
Texas	80	66	0.5	0.0	87.5	0.0	0.0

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Pr W	Lg%	WS%
Atlanta	78	69	0.4	8.3	87.0	2.3	0.9
Florida	79	69	0.4	2.5	85.8	0.5	0.2
New York (N)	63	85	0.0	0.0	69.2	0.0	0.0
Philadelphia	86	60	99.2	0.3	94.9	27.6	9.9
Washington	51	96	0.0	0.0	57.5	0.0	0.0

Chicago (N)	75	71	0.0	0.4	83.8	0.1	0.0
Cincinnati	68	80	0.0	0.0	75.0	0.0	0.0
Houston	70	77	0.0	0.0	76.8	0.0	0.0
Milwaukee	72	75	0.0	0.0	78.6	0.0	0.0
Pittsburgh	56	89	0.0	0.0	63.3	0.0	0.0
St. Louis	86	62	100.0	0.0	94.0	25.6	8.8

Arizona	65	83	0.0	0.0	72.2	0.0	0.0
Colorado	83	65	2.4	76.3	90.5	12.7	3.5
Los Angeles (N)	88	60	97.6	2.4	96.4	29.7	11.3
San Diego	66	82	0.0	0.0	71.7	0.0	0.0
San Francisco	80	67	0.1	10.0	87.3	1.4	0.3

August 21 MLB Odds

2009-08-21T02:53:00.000-07:00

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Pr W	Lg%	WS%
Baltimore	49	72	0.0	0.0	67.2	0.0	0.0
Boston	69	51	9.5	71.5	93.7	24.3	16.6
New York (A)	76	45	89.9	9.4	100.4	34.6	25.6
Tampa Bay	65	55	0.5	11.5	87.9	3.3	2.2
Toronto	55	64	0.0	0.0	74.9	0.0	0.0

Chicago (A)	62	59	32.4	0.0	82.6	6.2	3.1
Cleveland	52	68	0.2	0.0	72.9	0.0	0.0
Detroit	64	56	62.6	0.0	84.8	10.2	4.6
Kansas City	47	73	0.0	0.0	66.5	0.0	0.0
Minnesota	58	63	4.8	0.0	77.9	0.7	0.3

Los Angeles (A)	73	46	92.8	1.1	95.5	18.6	9.9
Oakland	53	67	0.0	0.0	72.7	0.0	0.0
Seattle	62	59	0.1	0.1	80.8	0.0	0.0
Texas	68	52	7.1	6.3	87.6	2.0	0.8

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Pr W	Lg%	WS%
Atlanta	64	57	10.5	15.7	87.8	7.1	2.9
Florida	64	57	3.0	5.1	85.0	1.6	0.5
New York (N)	56	65	0.0	0.0	73.6	0.0	0.0
Philadelphia	69	49	86.5	4.7	94.2	25.4	10.4
Washington	43	78	0.0	0.0	60.4	0.0	0.0

Chicago (N)	61	58	11.1	6.1	85.9	3.8	1.4
Cincinnati	51	69	0.0	0.0	71.0	0.0	0.0
Houston	59	62	0.1	0.0	77.9	0.0	0.0
Milwaukee	58	62	0.3	0.1	78.3	0.1	0.0
Pittsburgh	49	70	0.0	0.0	66.7	0.0	0.0
St. Louis	70	53	88.5	2.0	91.9	20.2	6.8

Arizona	54	68	0.0	0.0	74.1	0.0	0.0
Colorado	68	53	18.6	43.3	90.7	13.4	3.8
Los Angeles (N)	72	50	79.6	14.7	95.2	26.1	10.5
San Diego	51	72	0.0	0.0	66.4	0.0	0.0
San Francisco	66	55	1.9	8.4	85.5	2.2	0.5

August 20 MLB Odds

2009-08-20T02:46:00.001-07:00

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Pr W	Lg%	WS%
Baltimore	48	72	0.0	0.0	66.9	0.0	0.0
Boston	68	51	8.4	67.5	92.7	22.8	15.6
New York (A)	76	45	90.6	8.4	99.9	34.5	25.6
Tampa Bay	65	54	0.9	16.8	88.2	4.9	3.2
Toronto	55	63	0.0	0.0	75.3	0.0	0.0

Chicago (A)	62	59	34.4	0.0	82.2	6.6	3.3
Cleveland	51	68	0.2	0.0	70.6	0.0	0.0
Detroit	63	56	59.0	0.0	83.0	9.6	4.3
Kansas City	47	73	0.0	0.0	65.4	0.0	0.0
Minnesota	58	62	6.5	0.0	76.5	1.0	0.4

Los Angeles (A)	73	45	94.7	1.2	94.3	19.0	10.1
Oakland	53	67	0.0	0.0	70.7	0.0	0.0
Seattle	62	58	0.1	0.2	79.6	0.0	0.0
Texas	67	52	5.1	5.8	86.1	1.6	0.7

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Pr W	Lg%	WS%
Atlanta	63	57	9.6	14.0	87.5	6.4	2.6
Florida	64	56	4.7	6.6	86.3	2.3	0.7
New York (N)	56	64	0.0	0.0	75.8	0.0	0.0
Philadelphia	68	49	85.8	4.5	94.0	25.2	10.4
Washington	43	77	0.0	0.0	62.4	0.0	0.0

Chicago (N)	61	57	15.1	7.3	86.0	5.0	1.8
Cincinnati	50	69	0.0	0.0	70.7	0.0	0.0
Houston	58	62	0.1	0.0	78.6	0.0	0.0
Milwaukee	58	62	0.5	0.1	79.7	0.1	0.0
Pittsburgh	49	70	0.0	0.0	67.3	0.0	0.0
St. Louis	69	53	84.3	2.5	90.9	19.5	6.5

Arizona	54	67	0.0	0.0	75.2	0.0	0.0
Colorado	67	53	18.8	39.3	89.9	12.7	3.6
Los Angeles (N)	71	50	78.4	14.5	94.3	25.8	10.4
San Diego	51	71	0.0	0.0	67.8	0.0	0.0
San Francisco	66	54	2.8	11.1	86.9	2.9	0.7

August 18 MLB Oddds

2009-08-18T01:35:00.000-07:00

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Pr W	Lg%	WS%
Baltimore	48	70	0.0	0.0	67.8	0.0	0.0
Boston	66	51	8.1	62.4	91.9	23.3	15.9
New York (A)	74	45	90.9	8.0	99.1	34.7	25.7
Tampa Bay	63	54	1.0	16.2	87.3	5.0	3.3
Toronto	55	61	0.0	0.0	76.3	0.0	0.0

Chicago (A)	61	58	35.6	0.1	82.2	6.6	3.4
Cleveland	51	66	0.4	0.0	71.5	0.1	0.0
Detroit	62	55	59.0	0.1	82.9	9.4	4.2
Kansas City	46	72	0.0	0.0	65.3	0.0	0.0
Minnesota	56	62	5.1	0.0	75.7	0.7	0.3

Los Angeles (A)	71	45	89.6	2.8	93.3	17.2	9.1
Oakland	53	65	0.0	0.0	71.5	0.0	0.0
Seattle	61	57	0.2	0.3	79.5	0.0	0.0
Texas	67	50	10.2	10.1	87.0	2.9	1.2

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Pr W	Lg%	WS%
Atlanta	62	56	13.6	16.4	87.6	8.5	3.5
Florida	63	55	6.3	8.4	86.3	3.2	0.9
New York (N)	55	63	0.0	0.0	75.8	0.0	0.0
Philadelphia	66	49	80.1	7.0	93.2	24.4	10.0
Washington	43	75	0.0	0.0	63.3	0.0	0.0

Chicago (N)	60	56	16.8	9.4	86.1	6.3	2.2
Cincinnati	50	67	0.0	0.0	71.6	0.0	0.0
Houston	57	61	0.2	0.0	78.5	0.0	0.0
Milwaukee	58	60	0.8	0.3	80.7	0.2	0.1
Pittsburgh	47	70	0.0	0.0	66.2	0.0	0.0
St. Louis	68	52	82.2	3.4	91.0	19.5	6.5

Arizona	54	65	0.0	0.0	76.3	0.0	0.0
Colorado	65	53	14.4	35.3	89.0	10.3	2.9
Los Angeles (N)	70	49	83.6	10.8	94.4	25.3	10.2
San Diego	50	70	0.0	0.0	67.7	0.0	0.0
San Francisco	64	54	2.1	8.9	85.9	2.2	0.5

August 17 MLB Odds

2009-08-16T22:41:00.001-07:00

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Pr W	Lg%	WS%
Baltimore	48	69	0.0	0.0	68.4	0.0	0.0
Boston	66	51	8.0	64.9	92.1	24.1	16.4
New York (A)	74	44	91.0	8.0	99.7	34.7	25.7
Tampa Bay	63	54	1.0	15.8	87.3	4.8	3.2
Toronto	55	61	0.0	0.0	76.3	0.0	0.0

Chicago (A)	60	58	31.6	0.1	81.6	5.9	3.0
Cleveland	51	66	0.6	0.0	71.5	0.1	0.0
Detroit	62	55	60.9	0.1	82.9	9.7	4.4
Kansas City	46	71	0.0	0.0	65.8	0.0	0.0
Minnesota	56	61	6.9	0.0	76.2	1.0	0.4

Los Angeles (A)	70	45	86.3	2.4	92.5	16.5	8.7
Oakland	52	65	0.0	0.0	70.9	0.0	0.0
Seattle	61	57	0.6	0.3	79.5	0.1	0.0
Texas	66	50	13.1	8.5	86.4	3.1	1.3

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Pr W	Lg%	WS%
Atlanta	61	56	13.6	14.4	87.4	7.9	3.2
Florida	63	55	6.8	7.9	86.3	3.2	0.9
New York (N)	55	62	0.0	0.0	77.4	0.0	0.0
Philadelphia	66	49	79.6	6.1	93.2	24.0	9.9
Washington	43	75	0.0	0.0	63.3	0.0	0.0

Chicago (N)	60	55	23.3	10.3	86.7	8.0	2.8
Cincinnati	50	67	0.0	0.0	71.6	0.0	0.0
Houston	57	61	0.2	0.0	78.5	0.0	0.0
Milwaukee	58	59	1.4	0.4	81.2	0.4	0.1
Pittsburgh	46	70	0.0	0.0	65.6	0.0	0.0
St. Louis	67	52	75.1	4.9	90.6	18.3	6.1

Arizona	54	64	0.0	0.0	76.9	0.0	0.0
Colorado	65	53	13.6	38.0	89.0	10.7	3.0
Los Angeles (N)	70	48	84.6	10.1	95.0	25.5	10.2
San Diego	49	70	0.0	0.0	67.1	0.0	0.0
San Francisco	63	54	1.8	7.8	85.4	1.9	0.5

June 26 MLB Odds

2009-06-26T01:55:00.001-07:00

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	32	40	0.0	0.2	75.2
Boston	44	28	63.0	24.8	97.4
New York (A)	40	32	25.0	39.2	93.5
Tampa Bay	39	35	11.1	27.9	89.9
Toronto	40	34	1.0	4.6	84.2

Chicago (A)	35	37	4.5	0.1	76.2
Cleveland	30	44	6.9	0.2	75.2
Detroit	41	31	65.5	0.4	86.0
Kansas City	31	40	2.0	0.1	73.3
Minnesota	37	37	21.1	0.5	79.9

Los Angeles (A)	38	32	62.3	0.6	85.7
Oakland	31	40	5.6	0.2	75.8
Seattle	37	35	17.1	0.7	80.6
Texas	39	32	15.0	0.5	80.1

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	34	38	11.6	5.3	81.3
Florida	38	36	5.4	2.6	78.8
New York (N)	37	34	46.8	11.5	87.4
Philadelphia	37	33	36.2	11.3	85.5
Washington	21	49	0.0	0.0	63.2

Chicago (N)	34	35	32.2	11.4	84.2
Cincinnati	35	36	5.0	3.1	77.4
Houston	33	37	0.8	0.6	73.1
Milwaukee	38	34	20.4	8.3	82.7
Pittsburgh	33	39	0.6	0.3	71.5
St. Louis	40	34	41.1	10.6	85.0

Arizona	30	43	0.4	1.7	74.9
Colorado	37	35	2.5	10.4	80.3
Los Angeles (N)	47	26	92.3	4.1	95.7
San Diego	31	40	0.1	0.7	72.0
San Francisco	39	32	4.7	18.1	82.4

April 9 MLB Odds

2009-04-09T02:06:00.000-07:00

Due to some Excel issues, these numbers aren't totally consistent with yesterday's.

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	2	0	1.1	3.3	76.5
Boston	1	1	38.2	28.6	94.8
New York (A)	0	2	38.8	27.7	95.0
Tampa Bay	1	1	20.6	25.3	90.8
Toronto	2	1	1.2	3.2	76.4

Chicago (A)	1	1	6.7	0.5	73.6
Cleveland	0	2	39.5	2.1	84.5
Detroit	1	2	28.4	1.8	82.3
Kansas City	1	1	9.1	0.8	75.5
Minnesota	2	1	16.2	1.2	78.7

Los Angeles (A)	1	2	42.4	1.8	84.2
Oakland	2	1	32.2	2.0	82.3
Seattle	1	2	19.1	1.2	78.7
Texas	2	0	6.2	0.4	72.4

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	2	1	29.3	13.4	86.9
Florida	3	0	2.6	1.9	73.7
New York (N)	2	0	43.5	13.4	89.8
Philadelphia	1	2	23.0	12.2	85.4
Washington	0	3	1.6	1.4	71.7

Chicago (N)	2	1	61.0	9.6	92.3
Cincinnati	0	2	5.7	4.0	77.2
Houston	1	2	1.1	1.2	71.0
Milwaukee	1	1	16.2	10.6	83.0
Pittsburgh	2	1	0.7	0.7	69.1
St. Louis	1	2	15.3	9.7	82.8

Arizona	1	2	26.4	7.0	83.8
Colorado	2	1	8.0	2.7	77.0
Los Angeles (N)	2	1	50.4	6.8	88.4
San Diego	1	2	4.3	1.6	73.7
San Francisco	1	1	10.9	3.9	78.5

April 8 MLB Odds

2009-04-08T12:52:00.000-07:00

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	1	0	1.1	2.9	75.5
Boston	1	0	39.1	28.4	95.0
New York (A)	0	1	40.5	29.1	96.2
Tampa Bay	0	1	18.2	24.9	90.9
Toronto	2	0	1.2	3.4	76.2

Chicago (A)	1	0	7.6	0.5	73.5
Cleveland	0	1	43.1	1.8	85.5
Detroit	0	2	26.4	1.9	82.5
Kansas City	0	1	8.9	0.8	75.4
Minnesota	1	1	14.0	1.1	77.9

Los Angeles (A)	1	1	43.6	2.0	84.6
Oakland	1	1	29.8	1.7	81.7
Seattle	1	1	20.8	1.1	79.0
Texas	1	0	5.7	0.3	71.3

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	2	0	31.7	13.9	85.6
Florida	2	0	2.4	1.8	71.6
New York (N)	1	0	42.2	13.3	88.1
Philadelphia	0	2	21.7	12.2	85.4
Washington	0	2	1.9	1.3	72.7

Chicago (N)	1	1	58.2	10.1	90.7
Cincinnati	0	1	6.8	4.3	77.2
Houston	1	1	1.8	1.2	70.4
Milwaukee	0	1	15.3	8.8	81.7
Pittsburgh	1	1	0.8	0.6	67.1
St. Louis	1	1	17.2	10.0	82.3

Arizona	1	1	28.7	7.5	83.6
Colorado	1	1	8.1	2.5	75.3
Los Angeles (N)	1	1	46.2	7.2	86.9
San Diego	1	1	4.5	1.5	73.1
San Francisco	1	0	12.6	3.8	77.6

April 7 MLB Odds

2009-04-07T01:16:00.000-07:00

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	1	0	1.0	2.6	75.5
Boston	0	0	38.2	28.5	95.0
New York (A)	0	1	40.2	28.4	96.2
Tampa Bay	0	0	19.6	25.2	90.9
Toronto	1	0	1.1	3.3	76.2

Chicago (A)	0	0	6.6	0.6	73.5
Cleveland	0	1	43.5	1.9	85.5
Detroit	0	1	27.3	1.9	82.5
Kansas City	0	0	9.2	0.8	75.4
Minnesota	0	1	13.5	1.0	77.9

Los Angeles (A)	1	0	46.0	2.2	84.6
Oakland	0	1	28.0	1.8	81.7
Seattle	1	0	20.9	1.3	79.0
Texas	1	0	5.0	0.4	71.3

	W	L	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	1	0	29.2	12.9	85.6
Florida	1	0	2.3	1.3	71.6
New York (N)	1	0	42.0	12.3	88.1
Philadelphia	0	1	24.4	11.5	85.4
Washington	0	1	2.2	1.5	72.7

Chicago (N)	1	0	61.0	9.5	90.7
Cincinnati	0	1	5.7	4.6	77.2
Houston	0	1	1.2	1.0	70.4
Milwaukee	0	0	15.9	9.8	81.7
Pittsburgh	1	0	0.7	0.5	67.1
St. Louis	0	1	15.5	10.2	82.3

Arizona	1	0	30.6	8.1	83.6
Colorado	0	1	6.3	2.6	75.3
Los Angeles (N)	1	0	48.5	8.0	86.9
San Diego	0	1	3.7	1.8	73.1
San Francisco	0	0	10.9	4.4	77.6

The 2009 Season, Simulated (CHONE)

2009-03-31T01:36:00.000-07:00

(Read the intro to this series.)

This post comes a little late, but work is busy this time of year. On the plus side, while you were all waiting with baited breath, ReplacementLevel.com released this year's Diamond Mind projections. The standard deviation for each team? You guessed it, about six games.

Since the goal is to compare playoff odds against the ideal model, I'm going to brazenly steal the RS/RA outputs from the ReplacementLevel.com CHONE projections. Here's what we come up with in 10,000 simulations for each:

First run: With normal levels of uncertainty. This is as accurate as we can get in the real world:

Second run: "Ideal" projections:

The 2009 Season, Simulated (Hardball Times)

2009-03-19T01:43:00.000-07:00

(Read the intro to this series.)

Inputs: Runs scored and allowed taken from here, then adjusted for each team's strength of schedule.

Methods: xlsSports playoff simulator. The standard deviation for each team's winning percentage is set to .035 for the first simulation, and zero for the second. 10,000 seasons were simulated for each run.

First run: With normal levels of uncertainty. This is as accurate as we can get in the real world:

Second run: "Ideal" projections:

Of note: since we ran 10,000 projections instead of 100, the A's pull ahead of the Angels with their better run differential, the gap between the Yankees and Red Sox narrows considerably, and the Braves now win the division more often than the Phillies, as they should.

March 19 WBC Update

2009-03-18T23:47:00.000-07:00

Team	WBC%

Jap	24.3
Kor	13.2
USA	43.6
Ven	19.0

The 2009 Season, Simulated (PECOTA)

2009-03-18T21:59:00.000-07:00

(Read the intro to this series.)

Inputs: Runs scored and allowed taken from here, then adjusted for each team's strength of schedule.

Methods: xlsSports playoff simulator. The standard deviation for each team's winning percentage is set to .035 for the first simulation, and zero for the second. 10,000 seasons were simulated for each run.

First run: With normal levels of uncertainty. This is as accurate as we can get in the real world:

Second run: "Ideal" projections:

The difference might not seem profound, but it is. The weaker teams are much, much more likely to make the playoffs in the real world than the theoretical one.

The 2009 Season, Simulated (Intro)

2009-03-18T00:25:00.000-07:00

Simulating the upcoming baseball season a lot of times to estimate each team's chances of winning the division or the Wild Card is hardly a new concept. Baseball Prospectus, Diamond Mind, and the Replacement Level Yankee Weblog have been doing this for years, and The Hardball Times just published their take on this year's probabilities. Why do we need another blogger joining the fray?

My short answer* is that most of the other simulations are flawed because they use Diamond Mind to simulate the seasons, and Diamond Mind simply doesn't cut it for this purpose.

The best way I can illustrate this is by looking at ReplacementLevel.com's 2008 projections. Focus on the StD W column. This represents the range of outcomes for that team between -1 standard deviation and +1 standard deviation from the mean. Scanning the numbers, you'll notice the spread is almost always 12 or 13 wins, e.g. 68-80.

This is way too precise. Way back in 2005, Keith Woolner studied just how precise our projections could be. He simulated 1000 seasons using the actual 2004 standings and came up with an average standard deviation of about 6.3 wins per team per season, which agrees with basic statistics. (If a team is projected to win x games, their standard deviation in a vacuum will equal the square root of [x*(162-x)/162], which will be between 6.1 and 6.36 wins for all reasonable estimates of x.)

In this utopian simulation, the spread between -1 standard deviation and +1 standard deviation should be 12.6 wins, which matches the Diamond Mind results. However, Woolner was using perfect information: if a team won 92 games in 2004, they were a 92-win club for every game of every simulation. Each of that team's pitchers was equally good, and players never got injured or took days off. We don't live in that world; here on Earth, four teams** missed their Vegas over/under by an average of 21 games apiece last year.

Hopefully we are not so arrogant that we pretend to know everything about the upcoming season. How many innings is Rich Harden going to pitch in 2009? I don't know, but I do know that the answer will greatly affect the Cubs' win total. Realistically, we aim for a standard deviation of 8.5 or 9 wins per team, not 6.3. We need a way to account for all the question marks, and the answer is a random variable in each simulation.

Baseball Prospectus gets this part right. Each team has a constant base rating derived from their projected talent, but their strength in each individual simulation will bounce up and down around this base. The Red Sox will not be a .600 team every time; Josh Beckett's arm might blow up in one sim, whereas he wins the Cy Young in a different one.

In both BP and Diamond Mind sims, a 97-win team will average 97 wins across a million simulated seasons; but when the random variables are added, an 86-win underdog has a much better chance of overtaking the juggernaut in any given sim. (One constant in sports is that big underdogs almost always prefer more variance; call it Kill Phil.) This is why you will see last-place teams make the playoffs far more often in BP simulations than in Diamond Mind simulations.

Onward! A few weeks ago, I came across an ingenious Monte Carlo simulator for the baseball season. Using Excel, you can input each team's projected runs scored and allowed, and more importantly, you can adjust the standard deviation for each team's projected winning percentage. That makes the playoff percentages much more realistic, and it's why I'll be using this spreadsheet for my simulations. (If all goes according to plan, I'll run the sims twice to show how profound this effect is, once with a normal standard deviation and once with none at all.)

Up next: 2009 season forecasts from CHONE, PECOTA, ZiPS, and The Hardball Times. Stay tuned.

* Other complaints: 100 or 1000 simulations are not really enough to generate accurate percentages, BP's odds usually "overreact" to early season results, and the BP depth charts are ineffective at forecasting bullpen usage, often to the point where a ninth reliever is projected for as many innings as a setup man.

** Rays, Tigers, Mariners, and Padres.

March 18 WBC Update

2009-03-18T00:18:00.000-07:00

Team	Pool%	WBC%
Cub	27.2	9.9
Jap	33.3	13.2
Kor	39.4	13.0
USA	67.3	45.0
Ven	32.7	18.9

March 16 WBC Update

2009-03-16T00:33:00.001-07:00

Team	Pool%	WBC%
Cub	17.6	8.0
Jap	51.0	23.6
Kor	26.4	10.1
Mex	5.0	1.6
PR	24.0	11.5
USA	47.2	30.6
Ven	28.8	14.6

March 15 WBC Update

2009-03-14T22:51:00.001-07:00

Team	Pool%	WBC%
Cub	30.7	13.0
Jap	38.5	17.3
Kor	19.0	6.9
Mex	11.7	3.7
Ned	0.2	0.0
PR	23.8	11.7
USA	47.6	32.7
Ven	28.5	14.7

Updated WBC Probabilities

2009-03-11T21:48:00.000-07:00

Now that the field is set (though Cuba and Mexico still need to have their seeding determined) here's how I see the odds shaking out:

Team	Pool%	WBC%
Cub	30.4	12.0
Jap	38.1	16.1
Kor	17.6	5.8
Mex	13.8	4.2
Ned	0.4	0.1
PR	14.7	7.4
USA	62.0	41.9
Ven	22.9	12.5

Amusing (to me, at least): Jayson Stark marvels at the 200-1 odds Bodog offered on the Netherlands to win the WBC at its outset. I still wouldn't bet them at that price now.

How bad a bet was this? According to Stark, you could have bet the Netherlands to advance from Pool A at 50-1, and CRIS offered 30-1 on them to win the WBC before today's game. That's already a payoff of 1580-1 on a parlay, and we haven't even shopped around for better odds.

World Baseball Classic Estimates

2009-03-04T17:27:00.000-08:00

Team	W%
Australia	.0
Canada	.8
China	.0
Chi Taipei	.1
Cuba	11.4
DR	20.6
Italy	.0
Japan	14.2
Korea	5.8
Mexico	4.6
Netherlands	.0
Panama	.6
PR	5.4
S Africa	.0
USA	27.3
Venezuela	9.0

Early MLB Estimates

2009-02-16T07:41:00.000-08:00

Warning: these numbers are rough. Use at your own risk.

If you have any questions, feel free to use the comments, but my answer will likely be "because the formula said so."

	Div%	WC%	Proj W	Lg%	WS%
Baltimore	.6	1.3	76.7	.3	.1
Boston	40.5	31.6	97.3	26.2	17.2
New York (A)	38.5	31.3	96.9	24.9	16.2
Tampa Bay	18.3	22.8	91.4	11.6	6.7
Toronto	2.2	4.4	81.4	1.2	.5


Chicago (A)	7.8	.2	73.0	.9	.3
Cleveland	39.3	2.3	83.4	8.1	3.9
Detroit	26.5	1.2	80.2	4.6	2.1
Kansas City	6.5	.1	72.2	.7	.3
Minnesota	20.0	.7	78.2	3.1	1.3


Los Angeles (A)	40.2	1.9	82.9	8.0	3.8
Oakland	40.7	1.9	83.0	8.2	3.9
Seattle	12.2	.2	74.6	1.6	.6
Texas	7.0	.1	71.8	.8	.3



	Div%	WC%	Proj W	Lg%	WS%
Atlanta	25.7	14.2	86.7	10.6	4.6
Florida	2.2	1.2	74.5	.5	.2
New York (N)	38.6	18.7	90.0	17.7	8.3
Philadelphia	29.2	15.6	87.7	12.5	5.5
Washington	4.3	2.5	77.2	1.1	.4


Chicago (N)	48.1	12.9	89.1	18.1	8.3
Cincinnati	10.2	2.6	78.1	2.2	.8
Houston	2.0	.3	71.0	.3	.1
Milwaukee	21.7	6.1	82.5	6.0	2.4
Pittsburgh	.6	.1	67.2	.1	.0
St. Louis	17.4	4.8	81.1	4.5	1.7


Arizona	41.6	9.4	86.5	13.4	5.8
Colorado	15.1	3.0	79.1	3.3	1.2
Los Angeles (N)	20.8	4.4	81.1	5.1	2.0
San Diego	11.6	2.1	77.7	2.4	.8
San Francisco	10.8	2.0	77.3	2.1	.7

Super Bowl Odds

2009-01-12T18:28:00.000-08:00

	SB%
Pit	.412
Bal	.163
Ari	.115
Phi	.310

Playoff Week 2 Odds

2009-01-04T21:47:00.000-08:00

You may notice that the odds have shifted significantly for teams that didn't play in Week 1. There are two reasons:

- Matchups have changed the odds. For example, the Eagles are by far the worst matchup the Giants could have drawn.
- Week 2 odds, which I previously had to estimate, are now out there. I'm still estimating Week 3 odds, which may be completely inaccurate. You have been warned.

	Conf	SB
Ten	.311	.148
Pit	.355	.187
SD	.141	.069
Bal	.193	.098



	Conf	SB
NYG	.432	.231
Car	.333	.158
Ari	.054	.015
Phi	.182	.094

Playoff Week 1 Odds

2008-12-29T14:53:00.000-08:00

Standard caveats apply.

	Conf	SB
Ten	.299	.139
Pit	.322	.163
Mia	.044	.017
SD	.088	.043
Ind	.133	.071
Bal	.114	.059

	Conf	SB
NYG	.466	.258
Car	.279	.135
Min	.041	.016
Ari	.029	.008
Atl	.070	.030
Phi	.115	.062

Week 17 Conference/Super Bowl Odds

2008-12-23T13:18:00.000-08:00

	Conf	SB
Ten	.284	.131
Pit	.328	.161
Ind	.146	.075
Den	.013	.006
NYJ	.020	.009
NE	.046	.020
Mia	.045	.020
Bal	.078	.035
SD	.040	.017

	Conf	SB
NYG	.467	.275
Car	.206	.107
Min	.061	.028
Ari	.044	.016
TB	.031	.014
Dal	.043	.024
Atl	.127	.056
Phi	.005	.003
Chi	.010	.005

Week 17 Division And Wild Card Odds

2008-12-23T13:16:00.000-08:00

AFC E
Mia	.435
NE	.412
NYJ	.153

AFC W
Den	.250
SD	.750

NFC N
Chi	.132
Min	.868

NFC S
Atl	.361
Car	.639

AFC WC
Bal	.912
NE	.038
NYJ	.049

NFC WC
Car	.361
TB	.464
Atl	.639
Dal	.460
Phi	.056
Chi	.020

Week 16 Conference/Super Bowl Odds

2008-12-19T16:24:00.001-08:00

Still in their experimental phase.

	Conf	SB
Ten	.256	.108
Pit	.346	.170
Ind	.146	.074
Den	.059	.021
NYJ	.062	.026
NE	.037	.015
Mia	.036	.015
Bal	.054	.024
SD	.005	.002

	Conf	SB
NYG	.388	.231
Car	.253	.133
Min	.093	.045
Ari	.063	.028
TB	.083	.039
Dal	.054	.032
Atl	.036	.017
Phi	.030	.018
Chi	.004	.002

Week 16 Division Odds

2008-12-19T16:22:00.000-08:00

AFC E
Mia	.308
NE	.170
NYJ	.523

AFC W
Den	.926
SD	.074

NFC N
Chi	.037
Min	.963

NFC S
Atl	.048
Car	.785
TB	.167

Taking A Crack At NFL Division Odds

2008-12-10T07:24:00.001-08:00

This may be a miserable failure.

These odds were generated from:

- Actual Week 15 game lines
- Week 16 (and some Week 17 "games of the year") advance game lines
- Projected Week 17 game lines for Cle-Pit, Jax-Bal, Mia-NYJ, NE-Buf, Car-NO, Oak-TB, StL-Atl

Also, you may notice there are no wild card percentages here. Hey, they don't offer betting lines for wild card berths, and I wasn't doing this for purely academic purposes.

AFC E
Mia	.323
NE	.189
NYJ	.488

AFC N
Pit	.840
Bal	.160

AFC W
Den	.961
SD	.039

NFC N
Chi	.078
GB	.009
Min	.913

NFC S
Atl	.039
Car	.580
TB	.381

10/28 Update (I think)

2008-10-28T10:08:00.001-07:00

I feel slightly less confident about my in-game win probability estimates than pre-game ones, but here goes:

				WS%
Tampa Bay				.130
Philadelphia				.870

Phi in 5				.598
Phi in 6				.176
Phi in 7				.096

Tam in 7				.130

10/27 Update and Breakdown

2008-10-27T01:45:00.000-07:00

				WS%
Tampa Bay				.143
Philadelphia				.857

Phi in 5				.558
Phi in 6				.193
Phi in 7				.106

Tam in 7				.143

10/26 Update and Breakdown

2008-10-25T22:50:00.000-07:00

				WS%
Tampa Bay				.338
Philadelphia				.662

Phi in 5				.284
Phi in 6				.218
Phi in 7				.160

Tam in 6				.122
Tam in 7				.216

10/24 Update

2008-10-23T21:43:00.000-07:00

				WS%
Tampa Bay				.516
Philadelphia				.484

10/23 Update

2008-10-22T21:56:00.001-07:00

				WS%
Tampa Bay				.376
Philadelphia				.624

Simple Excel Calculator

2008-10-22T03:46:00.000-07:00

A few people have asked for a simple Excel file that takes the estimated odds for each game of a 7-game series and converts it into the probability of one team winning the series. I uploaded one here, for anyone who's interested.

World Series Update

2008-10-20T02:38:00.000-07:00

The offshore sportsbooks opened Tampa as a 58% favorite in the World Series. Most or all of the difference between that number and mine is due to Brett Myers; I've bet on Myers in virtually every game he's started this year, so clearly I have a higher opinion of the wifebeater than the market does.

				WS%
Tampa Bay				.545
Philadelphia				.455

10/19 Update

2008-10-19T01:32:00.001-07:00

I edited the World Series numbers to reflect the greater advantage the sports betting market is placing on the AL entrant. I'm not sure anyone really knows how to measure the gap between the leagues now, but my guess is it's somewhere in between my previous estimates and the current World Series lines.

	Lg%	WS%
Boston	.467	.265
Tampa Bay	.533	.290

Philadelphia		.445

10/17 Update

2008-10-16T22:30:00.000-07:00

	Lg%	WS%
Boston	.235	.131
Tampa Bay	.765	.399

Philadelphia	1.000	.470

10/16 Update

2008-10-15T22:35:00.001-07:00

	Lg%	WS%
Boston	.122	.068
Tampa Bay	.878	.458

Philadelphia		.474

Kazmir Starts Game 5

2008-10-15T12:20:00.000-07:00

I actually don't think this is a pointless move. Yes, Kazmir and Shields were both going to start two ALCS games either way, and their home/road splits this year aren't statistically significant. However, Kazmir is a lefty whose weakness is allowing home runs. If you can choose to have a giant left field wall for only one of these two pitchers, Kaz is the pick.

That said, this didn't make much of a difference in the odds:

	Lg%	WS%
Boston	.122	.068
Tampa Bay	.878	.460

Philadelphia	.899	.426
Los Angeles (N)	.101	.045

10/15 Update

2008-10-15T02:03:00.000-07:00

	Lg%	WS%
Boston	.123	.069
Tampa Bay	.877	.460

Philadelphia	.899	.426
Los Angeles (N)	.101	.045

10/14 Update

2008-10-14T02:43:00.001-07:00

	Lg%	WS%
Boston	.318	.178
Tampa Bay	.682	.358

Philadelphia	.899	.419
Los Angeles (N)	.101	.045

10/13 Update

2008-10-13T00:51:00.001-07:00

	Lg%	WS%
Boston	.532	.301
Tampa Bay	.468	.247

Philadelphia	.702	.322
Los Angeles (N)	.298	.130

10/12 Update

2008-10-12T01:47:00.000-07:00

	Lg%	WS%
Boston	.532	.300
Tampa Bay	.468	.246

Philadelphia	.809	.371
Los Angeles (N)	.191	.083

10/11 Update

2008-10-10T22:27:00.000-07:00

	Lg%	WS%
Boston	.679	.382
Tampa Bay	.321	.169

Philadelphia	.809	.367
Los Angeles (N)	.191	.082

10/10 Update

2008-10-09T20:48:00.000-07:00

Updates:

- Phillies win Game 1
- Mike Lowell ruled out for ALCS

	Lg%	WS%
Boston	.504	.285
Tampa Bay	.496	.263

Philadelphia	.670	.308
Los Angeles (N)	.330	.145

NLCS Rotations Set

2008-10-08T17:30:00.001-07:00

Also replacing Takashi Saito on the LAD roster with Hong-Chih Kuo:

	Lg%	WS%
Boston	.520	.295
Tampa Bay	.480	.256

Philadelphia	.542	.249
Los Angeles (N)	.458	.200

ALCS Rotations Set

2008-10-08T14:44:00.001-07:00

	Lg%	WS%
Boston	.520	.296
Tampa Bay	.480	.256

Philadelphia	.529	.243
Los Angeles (N)	.471	.206

10/7 Update

2008-10-06T22:47:00.001-07:00

	Lg%	WS%
Boston	.518	.294
Tampa Bay	.482	.257

Philadelphia	.529	.243
Los Angeles (N)	.471	.206

10/6 Update

2008-10-06T00:14:00.000-07:00

	DS%	Lg%	WS%
Boston	.765	.416	.231
Tampa Bay	.822	.408	.216
Chicago (A)	.178	.065	.025
Los Angeles (A)	.235	.111	.053


Philadelphia		.529	.260
Los Angeles (N)		.471	.215

Sunday Update

2008-10-04T23:21:00.000-07:00

	DS%	Lg%	WS%
Boston	.927	.493	.277
Tampa Bay	.911	.442	.236
Chicago (A)	.089	.032	.012
Los Angeles (A)	.073	.033	.016


Philadelphia	.763	.402	.193

Milwaukee	.237	.106	.046
Los Angeles		.492	.219

Saturday Update

2008-10-03T22:29:00.000-07:00

Changes:

- Derek Lowe starting Game 4 on short rest

	DS%	Lg%	WS%
Boston	.927	.493	.274
Tampa Bay	.911	.442	.234
Chicago (A)	.089	.032	.012
Los Angeles (A)	.073	.033	.016


Philadelphia	.877	.457	.220
Chicago (N)	.117	.062	.030
Milwaukee	.123	.055	.024
Los Angeles	.883	.426	.190

Friday Update

2008-10-02T22:57:00.001-07:00

	DS%	Lg%	WS%
Boston	.762	.417	.232
Tampa Bay	.788	.392	.207
Chicago (A)	.212	.077	.030
Los Angeles (A)	.238	.114	.054


Philadelphia	.877	.456	.225
Chicago (N)	.127	.067	.033
Milwaukee	.123	.055	.024
Los Angeles	.873	.422	.193

Buehrle Starting ALDS Game Five

2008-10-02T10:46:00.001-07:00

In his BP article today, Nate Silver makes the excellent point that the White Sox will probably bring Mark Buehrle back for Game 5of the ALDS on full rest, starting their "ace" while getting an additional lefty in the series against the left-leaning Rays.

I don't buy into the notion that Kazmir will also start Game 5; the Rays could have simply given him the Game 1 start on a week's rest and didn't do it.

Anyway, here's an update to reflect Chicago's rotation plans. Note that their chances of winning actually go down:

	DS%	Lg%	WS%
Boston	.762	.431	.241
Tampa Bay	.640	.318	.168
Chicago (A)	.360	.131	.051
Los Angeles (A)	.238	.119	.057


Philadelphia	.689	.352	.176
Chicago (N)	.328	.176	.089
Milwaukee	.311	.137	.062
Los Angeles	.672	.335	.156

Thursday Update

2008-10-01T21:56:00.000-07:00

	DS%	Lg%	WS%
Boston	.762	.432	.241
Tampa Bay	.630	.313	.166
Chicago (A)	.370	.135	.052
Los Angeles (A)	.238	.119	.057


Philadelphia	.688	.351	.176
Chicago (N)	.328	.176	.090
Milwaukee	.312	.138	.062
Los Angeles	.672	.335	.156

Pregame Update

2008-10-01T11:48:00.001-07:00

Changes:
- Carl Crawford activated
- J.D. Drew activated
- Mike Lowell activated

	DS%	Lg%	WS%
Boston	.553	.314	.175
Tampa Bay	.630	.323	.171
Chicago (A)	.370	.139	.054
Los Angeles (A)	.447	.224	.107


Philadelphia	.543	.272	.139
Chicago (N)	.520	.284	.147
Milwaukee	.457	.200	.092
Los Angeles	.480	.245	.116

PSA

2008-10-01T04:26:00.000-07:00

Betting recommendations for the playoffs will be conducted over here.

Wednesday Update

2008-09-30T17:43:00.001-07:00

Changes:

- AL Central finalized
- Rafael Furcal added to Dodgers lineup

	DS%	Lg%	WS%
Boston	.534	.301	.168
Tampa Bay	.621	.316	.167
Chicago (A)	.379	.143	.055
Los Angeles (A)	.466	.240	.114


Philadelphia	.543	.272	.139
Chicago (N)	.520	.284	.147
Milwaukee	.457	.200	.092
Los Angeles	.480	.245	.117

Why I Hate The Cubs And Angels

2008-09-30T03:17:00.000-07:00

I don't, really. I grew up in Chicago and have been a Cubs fan for 15 years. However, I can see how you'd get this idea from my numbers, which are well off from the betting markets and pundits' predictions. What's going on?

Cubs

The Cubs are the best team in the NL, but the gap is not that big.

Offensively, Chicago led the NL in runs this year by a wide margin, but that overstates the case in their favor. The Cubs were projected to score fewer runs than both the Phillies and Brewers this year. That matters, because teams regress to toward their preseason expectations. Going forward, we expect the Cubs to have a slightly better offense than Philly and Milwaukee, but only by about .2 runs/game. The Dodgers lagged far behind in offense, but that's mostly because they spent a large portion of the year starting Andruw Jones, Juan Pierre, and Angel Berroa in place of Manny Ramirez and Rafael Furcal. You could argue that their current lineup is as good as any in the NL field.

As for pitching, it's easy to forget that the Cubs' Game 1 starter had ERAs of 4.80 and 4.72 as a one-inning reliever the past two years, or that Carlos Zambrano now has the peripherals of a 4.60 ERA pitcher. Fortunately for the Cubs, they have maybe the best starting pitcher in baseball right now...and they're relegating him to one start in the NLDS, because they're idiots. Simply naming Harden the Game 1 starter would improve Chicago's chances of winning the World Series by a full percentage point, but that would be too easy for Lou Piniella.

Looking at the BP Adjusted Standings, we see that the Cubs are a 95-win team playing against three teams in the 87-89 range, all of whom are managing their rotations better. That adds up to much less than a 40% chance to advance to the World Series.

Angels

The Angels are certainly not the best team in the AL. You won't find any metric besides W-L record that puts them ahead of the Red Sox or Rays. In fact, they're not just worse than those two teams, they're worse across the board, unable to match either team in offense, defense, or pitching.

Anaheim had the run differential of an 88-win team this year, and the peripherals of an 84-win team. You can argue until you're blue in the face about their "ability" to win close games, but the truth is that this was a fluke season; the Angels may have been the luckiest team in MLB history.

How can a team be built to win a disproportionate number of close games? A strong bullpen? The Blue Jays had a 2.94 relief ERA this year (wow) and they went 24-32 in one-run games. The Dodgers, third in bullpen ERA, went 19-24. Meanwhile, the Rangers--who had MLB's worst bullpen ERA and a losing record to boot--were a robust 28-18 in one-run contests. San Francisco's pen may have been the worst in the majors after park adjustments; they went 31-21 in one-run games, and 41-69 in all others.

What about batters delivering timely hits? The Twins were by far the best clutch hitting team in the league this year: they batted .280 overall, but a whopping .306 with runners in scoring position, which is the only reason they're still in this thing. That plus Joe Nathan's 1.34 ERA led to a 26-25 record in one-run games.

This "ability" is a backward-looking measure, like clutch hitting. It's easy to name last year's best clutch hitters, but nobody can identify next year's. Similarly, you can tell which teams have overperformed this year, but not who will do it in the future--and the future includes the playoffs.

The Diamondbacks were 2007's poster children for overperformance after going 90-72 with a -20 run differential. This year, they improved that differential to +14, yet fell to 82-80--right in line with expectations. The carryover is a mirage.

That's basically it--the Angels are clearly the third-best team in this field, and their odds reflect it. Their chances would be even worse if they didn't have home field advantage and only one game against Josh Beckett.

Tuesday Update

2008-09-30T03:15:00.001-07:00

Changes:

White Sox win their first play-in game

	Div%	WC%	DS%	Lg%	WS%
Boston	.000	1.000	.534	.299	.167
Tampa Bay	1.000	.000	.613	.312	.164

Chicago (A)	.572	.000	.217	.082	.031
Minnesota	.428	.000	.170	.069	.031

Los Angeles (A)	1.000	.000	.466	.238	.113


Philadelphia	1.000	.000	.543	.277	.141

Chicago (N)	1.000	.000	.538	.293	.151
Milwaukee	.000	1.000	.457	.205	.094

Los Angeles	1.000	.000	.462	.224	.106

Beckett Injury Update

2008-09-29T02:15:00.000-07:00

(Note: Ben Sheets is also out for the playoffs, but I didn't have him in the latest iteration of the numbers anyway, so there's no change for Milwaukee.)

Apparently Josh Beckett is hurting. The Red Sox will try to have him start Game 3, but nobody's sure that will happen.

Assuming Beckett returns in time for the ALCS, I have two sets of alternative odds. The first is for Beckett starting Game 3:

	Div%	WC%	DS%	Lg%	WS%
Boston	.000	1.000	.534	.298	.166
Tampa Bay	1.000	.000	.612	.311	.164

Chicago (A)	.324	.000	.123	.046	.018
Minnesota	.676	.000	.265	.107	.048

Los Angeles (A)	1.000	.000	.466	.237	.113


Philadelphia	1.000	.000	.543	.277	.141

Chicago (N)	1.000	.000	.538	.293	.151
Milwaukee	.000	1.000	.457	.205	.094

Los Angeles	1.000	.000	.462	.224	.105

Next, Beckett missing the ALDS altogether:

	Div%	WC%	DS%	Lg%	WS%
Boston	.000	1.000	.494	.276	.154
Tampa Bay	1.000	.000	.612	.312	.165

Chicago (A)	.324	.000	.123	.047	.018
Minnesota	.676	.000	.265	.108	.048

Los Angeles (A)	1.000	.000	.506	.258	.122


Philadelphia	1.000	.000	.543	.277	.142

Chicago (N)	1.000	.000	.538	.293	.151
Milwaukee	.000	1.000	.457	.205	.094

Los Angeles	1.000	.000	.462	.224	.106

September 29

2008-09-28T14:36:00.000-07:00

	Div%	WC%	DS%	Lg%	WS%
Boston	.000	1.000	.565	.316	.176
Tampa Bay	1.000	.000	.612	.310	.164

Chicago (A)	.324	.000	.123	.046	.018
Minnesota	.676	.000	.265	.106	.048

Los Angeles (A)	1.000	.000	.435	.221	.105


Philadelphia	1.000	.000	.543	.277	.141

Chicago (N)	1.000	.000	.538	.293	.150
Milwaukee	.000	1.000	.457	.205	.093

Los Angeles	1.000	.000	.462	.224	.105