Saturday, September 19, 2009

September 19 Playoff Odds

I keep meaning to post regularly, but keep falling behind schedule. Also, six teams have already punched their postseason tickets, so this isn't the most interesting race.

What prompted today's update? A recent Keith Law chat:

James (Charlotte)
What are the chances of the Tigers beating the Yankees should they end up meeting in the 1st round?

Keith Law (1:32 PM)
45%.

Keith Law knows more about baseball than I do, but clearly he knows less about probability*. No sane person would put the Tigers' chances above 30% barring a major injury in the next couple weeks. The baseball playoffs are set up so the best team often doesn't bring home the hardware, but changing that would require playoff series so long that nobody would watch. Let's stop making October sound like just a string of seven coin flips.

* Or perhaps this is an attempt at hyperbole and nobody realizes it.


W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Baltimore 60 87 0.0 0.0 66.7 0.0 0.0
Boston 87 59 3.5 96.5 96.6 28.7 19.0
New York (A) 94 54 96.5 3.5 102.2 45.1 32.2
Tampa Bay 75 73 0.0 0.0 82.9 0.0 0.0
Toronto 66 81 0.0 0.0 73.3 0.0 0.0








Chicago (A) 72 76 1.8 0.0 79.6 0.3 0.1
Cleveland 61 86 0.0 0.0 67.9 0.0 0.0
Detroit 78 69 87.4 0.0 85.8 8.8 4.3
Kansas City 60 87 0.0 0.0 66.4 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 75 72 10.8 0.0 81.8 0.8 0.3








Los Angeles (A) 88 59 99.5 0.0 96.0 16.2 9.1
Oakland 69 78 0.0 0.0 76.2 0.0 0.0
Seattle 77 71 0.0 0.0 83.2 0.0 0.0
Texas 80 66 0.5 0.0 87.5 0.0 0.0









W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Atlanta 78 69 0.4 8.3 87.0 2.3 0.9
Florida 79 69 0.4 2.5 85.8 0.5 0.2
New York (N) 63 85 0.0 0.0 69.2 0.0 0.0
Philadelphia 86 60 99.2 0.3 94.9 27.6 9.9
Washington 51 96 0.0 0.0 57.5 0.0 0.0








Chicago (N) 75 71 0.0 0.4 83.8 0.1 0.0
Cincinnati 68 80 0.0 0.0 75.0 0.0 0.0
Houston 70 77 0.0 0.0 76.8 0.0 0.0
Milwaukee 72 75 0.0 0.0 78.6 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 56 89 0.0 0.0 63.3 0.0 0.0
St. Louis 86 62 100.0 0.0 94.0 25.6 8.8








Arizona 65 83 0.0 0.0 72.2 0.0 0.0
Colorado 83 65 2.4 76.3 90.5 12.7 3.5
Los Angeles (N) 88 60 97.6 2.4 96.4 29.7 11.3
San Diego 66 82 0.0 0.0 71.7 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 80 67 0.1 10.0 87.3 1.4 0.3

1 comment:

Garrett W. said...

Wat if Edwan and Justan get 2 starts each?