Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Updated WBC Probabilities

Now that the field is set (though Cuba and Mexico still need to have their seeding determined) here's how I see the odds shaking out:

Team Pool% WBC%
Cub 30.4 12.0
Jap 38.1 16.1
Kor 17.6 5.8
Mex 13.8 4.2
Ned 0.4 0.1
PR 14.7 7.4
USA 62.0 41.9
Ven 22.9 12.5

Amusing (to me, at least): Jayson Stark marvels at the 200-1 odds Bodog offered on the Netherlands to win the WBC at its outset. I still wouldn't bet them at that price now.

How bad a bet was this? According to Stark, you could have bet the Netherlands to advance from Pool A at 50-1, and CRIS offered 30-1 on them to win the WBC before today's game. That's already a payoff of 1580-1 on a parlay, and we haven't even shopped around for better odds.

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