Thursday, March 19, 2009

The 2009 Season, Simulated (Hardball Times)

(Read the intro to this series.)

Inputs: Runs scored and allowed taken from here, then adjusted for each team's strength of schedule.

Methods: xlsSports playoff simulator. The standard deviation for each team's winning percentage is set to .035 for the first simulation, and zero for the second. 10,000 seasons were simulated for each run.

First run: With normal levels of uncertainty. This is as accurate as we can get in the real world:

Second run: "Ideal" projections:


Of note: since we ran 10,000 projections instead of 100, the A's pull ahead of the Angels with their better run differential, the gap between the Yankees and Red Sox narrows considerably, and the Braves now win the division more often than the Phillies, as they should.

3 comments:

David said...

Am I right in assuming the chance of the team making the playoff is the combined Div% + WC%?

j holz said...

Yes

. said...

i'm very intrigued by the stuff you're doing here with the MLB projections. any updates coming soon with the results of the other forecasting systems?