(Read the intro to this series.)
This post comes a little late, but work is busy this time of year. On the plus side, while you were all waiting with baited breath, ReplacementLevel.com released this year's Diamond Mind projections. The standard deviation for each team? You guessed it, about six games.
Since the goal is to compare playoff odds against the ideal model, I'm going to brazenly steal the RS/RA outputs from the ReplacementLevel.com CHONE projections. Here's what we come up with in 10,000 simulations for each:
First run: With normal levels of uncertainty. This is as accurate as we can get in the real world:
Second run: "Ideal" projections: