Saturday, October 3, 2009

October 3 Playoff Odds


W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Boston 93 67
100.0 94.4 30.6 20.5
New York (A) 102 58 100.0
103.1 46.9 33.5








Detroit 85 75 82.3
86.0 7.6 3.4
Minnesota 84 76 17.7
85.1 0.8 0.3








Los Angeles (A) 95 65 100.0
96.0 14.1 7.3









W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Philadelphia 92 68 100.0
93.2 30.2 11.3








St. Louis 91 69 100.0
92.2 24.1 8.4








Colorado 92 68 17.2 82.8 92.8 16.4 4.5
Los Angeles (N) 93 67 82.8 17.2 94.2 29.3 11.0









HFA%




Philadelphia 5.4





St. Louis 0.0





Colorado 11.8





Los Angeles
82.8





Thursday, October 1, 2009

NL Home-Field Advantage Race: Oct. 2

Philadelphia 13.8
St. Louis 2.6
Colorado 2.8
Los Angeles
80.8

October 2 Playoff Odds


W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Boston 91 67
100.0 93.7 30.2 20.2
New York (A) 102 57 100.0
103.6 46.2 33.0








Detroit 85 74 92.6
86.5 8.5 3.7
Minnesota 83 76 7.4
84.7 0.3 0.1








Los Angeles (A) 94 64 100.0
96.2 14.7 7.6









W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Philadelphia 92 66 100.0
94.4 30.2 11.3








St. Louis 91 68 100.0
93.3 24.2 8.5








Colorado 91 68 7.5 92.5 92.3 16.1 4.5
Los Angeles (N) 93 66 92.5 7.5 94.7 29.4 11.1

October 1 Playoff Odds

Well, the playoff races are basically over. That just means we can spend Sunday focusing on the NFL.


W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Boston 91 67
100.0 93.7 30.3 20.2
New York (A) 102 57 100.0
103.6 46.0 32.9








Detroit 85 73 96.2
87.0 8.8 3.9
Minnesota 82 76 3.8
84.2 0.2 0.1








Los Angeles (A) 94 64 100.0
96.2 14.7 7.6









W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Atlanta 86 72
1.1 88.8 0.3 0.1
Philadelphia 92 66 100.0
94.4 30.0 11.2








St. Louis 90 68 100.0
92.8 24.7 8.6








Colorado 90 68 4.5 94.4 91.9 15.8 4.4
Los Angeles (N) 93 66 95.5 4.5 94.7 29.3 11.0

Tunnel Vision

Rob Neyer seems confident that the Yankees will opt for the division series schedule that gives them a three-man starting rotation--keeping Joba Chamberlain out of the mix--and he's probably right. But is it the right move for New York?

The three-man rotation effectively takes a start from Joba and gives it to Andy Pettitte. I don't believe Pettitte is a significantly better pitcher than Joba, but Chamberlain's August and September stats would scare any manager away. For the sake of argument, let's say Pettitte is the stronger pitcher right now. Why shouldn't the Yankees then choose the three-man rotation? Because we're not considering the other consequences:

a) The Tigers also get to use only three starting pitchers
b) The different rotation setup could affect availability for the ALCS
c) Each team can now use its fourth starter out of the bullpen

The last point clearly favors New York--who cares if Nate Robertson or Eddie Bonine is available for mopup work?--but a) and b) are hurting the Yankees plenty. By opting for the three-man rotation, the Yankees are converting a Robertson/Bonine start into an Edwin Jackson start. Jackson isn't as good as his current 3.36 ERA, but he is far better than the alternatives. Detroit gains much more from a second Jackson start than the Yankees do from a second Pettitte start.

The three-man rotation could also derail the pitching setup for the ALCS. Unless the Yankees sweep the division series, C.C. Sabathia will need to start twice, killing any chance of him pitching three ALCS games. With a four-man rotation, the Yankees simply need to dispatch Detroit in four games or less, which they will do 53% of the time by my estimates.

Even with regards to c)...after Joba's performance in August and September, can you see the Yankees using him in the late innings of a tight October game? Very unlikely. Furthermore, New York's two most prominent bullpen roles are already locked down. At most, Chamberlain will be a seventh-inning pitcher, and those just aren't that valuable.

If the Yankees choose this schedule solely to boot Joba from the ALDS rotation, they're not seeing the full picture.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

September 30 MLB Odds


W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Boston 91 66
100.0 94.4 30.2 20.2
New York (A) 102 56 100.0
104.3 46.5 33.2








Detroit 84 73 87.2
86.7 8.0 3.5
Minnesota 82 75 12.8
84.5 0.6 0.2








Los Angeles (A) 93 64 100.0
95.8 14.7 7.5









W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Atlanta 86 71 0.0 10.7 89.4 2.7 1.0
Philadelphia 91 66 100.0 0.0 94.1 29.1 10.9








St. Louis 90 67 100.0
93.4 24.8 8.7








Colorado 89 68 1.0 88.4 91.4 14.2 4.0
Los Angeles (N) 93 65 99.0 1.0 95.4 29.2 10.9
San Francisco 83 73
0.1 86.7 0.0 0.0

Monday, September 28, 2009

September 29 MLB Odds


W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Boston 91 65
100.0 95.0 30.2 20.1
New York (A) 101 56 100.0
104.0 46.6 33.2








Detroit 83 72 84.3
86.8 7.7 3.4
Minnesota 81 74 15.7
84.4 0.7 0.2








Los Angeles (A) 92 64 100.0
95.3 14.7 7.5
Texas 85 71
0.0 88.7 0.0 0.0









W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Atlanta 86 70 1.0 27.6 89.8 7.2 2.7
Florida 83 74
0.0 85.1 0.0 0.0
Philadelphia 90 66 99.0 0.6 93.7 27.8 10.4








Chicago (N) 81 74
0.0 85.4 0.0 0.0
St. Louis 90 66 100.0
93.9 24.9 8.7








Colorado 88 68 0.9 70.7 91.0 11.4 3.2
Los Angeles (N) 93 64 99.1 0.9 96.0 28.7 10.8
San Francisco 83 73
0.1 86.2 0.0 0.0

Sunday, September 27, 2009

September 28 MLB Odds


W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Boston 91 64
100.0 95.7 30.2 20.1
New York (A) 100 56 100.0
103.7 46.7 33.2








Detroit 83 72 84.3
86.8 7.7 3.4
Minnesota 81 74 15.7
84.4 0.7 0.2








Los Angeles (A) 91 64 99.4 0.0 94.9 14.6 7.5
Texas 85 70 0.6 0.0 89.1 0.0 0.0









W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Atlanta 85 70 0.3 21.0 89.5 5.3 2.0
Florida 83 73 0.0 0.0 85.4 0.0 0.0
Philadelphia 90 65 99.7 0.2 94.3 28.4 10.6








Chicago (N) 81 74
0.0 85.4 0.0 0.0
St. Louis 90 66 100.0
93.9 24.8 8.6








Colorado 88 68 0.4 78.3 91.0 12.6 3.5
Los Angeles (N) 93 63 99.6 0.4 96.6 28.9 10.8
San Francisco 83 73
0.1 86.2 0.0 0.0

Saturday, September 26, 2009

September 27 MLB Odds

Now that there are two actual races to watch, I'll try to move back to daily updates.

Does anyone know how MLB will decide who hosts a potential Colorado-Atlanta playoff for the Wild Card? I recall reading that they're trying to use head-to-head record as the determining factor, but the teams split the season series 4-4.


W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Boston 91 63 0.0 100.0 96.1 30.1 19.3
New York (A) 99 56 100.0 0.0 103.2 46.2 32.0








Detroit 83 71 85.4 0.0 87.4 8.3 3.9
Minnesota 81 73 14.6 0.0 84.8 0.7 0.3








Los Angeles (A) 90 64 99.1 0.0 94.5 14.7 8.0
Texas 85 69 0.9 0.0 88.6 0.1 0.0









W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Atlanta 84 70 0.7 23.6 89.1 6.2 2.5
Florida 83 72 0.0 0.6 86.0 0.1 0.0
Philadelphia 89 65 99.3 0.4 93.9 27.3 9.8








Chicago (N) 81 73
0.2 85.9 0.0 0.0
St. Louis 90 65 100.0
94.4 25.1 8.6








Colorado 87 68 0.1 75.0 90.5 12.2 3.4
Los Angeles (N) 93 62 99.9 0.1 97.2 29.1 11.1
San Francisco 82 73
0.1 85.7 0.0 0.0

Saturday, September 19, 2009

September 19 Playoff Odds

I keep meaning to post regularly, but keep falling behind schedule. Also, six teams have already punched their postseason tickets, so this isn't the most interesting race.

What prompted today's update? A recent Keith Law chat:

James (Charlotte)
What are the chances of the Tigers beating the Yankees should they end up meeting in the 1st round?

Keith Law (1:32 PM)
45%.

Keith Law knows more about baseball than I do, but clearly he knows less about probability*. No sane person would put the Tigers' chances above 30% barring a major injury in the next couple weeks. The baseball playoffs are set up so the best team often doesn't bring home the hardware, but changing that would require playoff series so long that nobody would watch. Let's stop making October sound like just a string of seven coin flips.

* Or perhaps this is an attempt at hyperbole and nobody realizes it.


W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Baltimore 60 87 0.0 0.0 66.7 0.0 0.0
Boston 87 59 3.5 96.5 96.6 28.7 19.0
New York (A) 94 54 96.5 3.5 102.2 45.1 32.2
Tampa Bay 75 73 0.0 0.0 82.9 0.0 0.0
Toronto 66 81 0.0 0.0 73.3 0.0 0.0








Chicago (A) 72 76 1.8 0.0 79.6 0.3 0.1
Cleveland 61 86 0.0 0.0 67.9 0.0 0.0
Detroit 78 69 87.4 0.0 85.8 8.8 4.3
Kansas City 60 87 0.0 0.0 66.4 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 75 72 10.8 0.0 81.8 0.8 0.3








Los Angeles (A) 88 59 99.5 0.0 96.0 16.2 9.1
Oakland 69 78 0.0 0.0 76.2 0.0 0.0
Seattle 77 71 0.0 0.0 83.2 0.0 0.0
Texas 80 66 0.5 0.0 87.5 0.0 0.0









W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Atlanta 78 69 0.4 8.3 87.0 2.3 0.9
Florida 79 69 0.4 2.5 85.8 0.5 0.2
New York (N) 63 85 0.0 0.0 69.2 0.0 0.0
Philadelphia 86 60 99.2 0.3 94.9 27.6 9.9
Washington 51 96 0.0 0.0 57.5 0.0 0.0








Chicago (N) 75 71 0.0 0.4 83.8 0.1 0.0
Cincinnati 68 80 0.0 0.0 75.0 0.0 0.0
Houston 70 77 0.0 0.0 76.8 0.0 0.0
Milwaukee 72 75 0.0 0.0 78.6 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 56 89 0.0 0.0 63.3 0.0 0.0
St. Louis 86 62 100.0 0.0 94.0 25.6 8.8








Arizona 65 83 0.0 0.0 72.2 0.0 0.0
Colorado 83 65 2.4 76.3 90.5 12.7 3.5
Los Angeles (N) 88 60 97.6 2.4 96.4 29.7 11.3
San Diego 66 82 0.0 0.0 71.7 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 80 67 0.1 10.0 87.3 1.4 0.3

Friday, August 21, 2009

August 21 MLB Odds


W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Baltimore 49 72 0.0 0.0 67.2 0.0 0.0
Boston 69 51 9.5 71.5 93.7 24.3 16.6
New York (A) 76 45 89.9 9.4 100.4 34.6 25.6
Tampa Bay 65 55 0.5 11.5 87.9 3.3 2.2
Toronto 55 64 0.0 0.0 74.9 0.0 0.0








Chicago (A) 62 59 32.4 0.0 82.6 6.2 3.1
Cleveland 52 68 0.2 0.0 72.9 0.0 0.0
Detroit 64 56 62.6 0.0 84.8 10.2 4.6
Kansas City 47 73 0.0 0.0 66.5 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 58 63 4.8 0.0 77.9 0.7 0.3








Los Angeles (A) 73 46 92.8 1.1 95.5 18.6 9.9
Oakland 53 67 0.0 0.0 72.7 0.0 0.0
Seattle 62 59 0.1 0.1 80.8 0.0 0.0
Texas 68 52 7.1 6.3 87.6 2.0 0.8









W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Atlanta 64 57 10.5 15.7 87.8 7.1 2.9
Florida 64 57 3.0 5.1 85.0 1.6 0.5
New York (N) 56 65 0.0 0.0 73.6 0.0 0.0
Philadelphia 69 49 86.5 4.7 94.2 25.4 10.4
Washington 43 78 0.0 0.0 60.4 0.0 0.0








Chicago (N) 61 58 11.1 6.1 85.9 3.8 1.4
Cincinnati 51 69 0.0 0.0 71.0 0.0 0.0
Houston 59 62 0.1 0.0 77.9 0.0 0.0
Milwaukee 58 62 0.3 0.1 78.3 0.1 0.0
Pittsburgh 49 70 0.0 0.0 66.7 0.0 0.0
St. Louis 70 53 88.5 2.0 91.9 20.2 6.8








Arizona 54 68 0.0 0.0 74.1 0.0 0.0
Colorado 68 53 18.6 43.3 90.7 13.4 3.8
Los Angeles (N) 72 50 79.6 14.7 95.2 26.1 10.5
San Diego 51 72 0.0 0.0 66.4 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 66 55 1.9 8.4 85.5 2.2 0.5

Thursday, August 20, 2009

August 20 MLB Odds


W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Baltimore 48 72 0.0 0.0 66.9 0.0 0.0
Boston 68 51 8.4 67.5 92.7 22.8 15.6
New York (A) 76 45 90.6 8.4 99.9 34.5 25.6
Tampa Bay 65 54 0.9 16.8 88.2 4.9 3.2
Toronto 55 63 0.0 0.0 75.3 0.0 0.0








Chicago (A) 62 59 34.4 0.0 82.2 6.6 3.3
Cleveland 51 68 0.2 0.0 70.6 0.0 0.0
Detroit 63 56 59.0 0.0 83.0 9.6 4.3
Kansas City 47 73 0.0 0.0 65.4 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 58 62 6.5 0.0 76.5 1.0 0.4








Los Angeles (A) 73 45 94.7 1.2 94.3 19.0 10.1
Oakland 53 67 0.0 0.0 70.7 0.0 0.0
Seattle 62 58 0.1 0.2 79.6 0.0 0.0
Texas 67 52 5.1 5.8 86.1 1.6 0.7









W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Atlanta 63 57 9.6 14.0 87.5 6.4 2.6
Florida 64 56 4.7 6.6 86.3 2.3 0.7
New York (N) 56 64 0.0 0.0 75.8 0.0 0.0
Philadelphia 68 49 85.8 4.5 94.0 25.2 10.4
Washington 43 77 0.0 0.0 62.4 0.0 0.0








Chicago (N) 61 57 15.1 7.3 86.0 5.0 1.8
Cincinnati 50 69 0.0 0.0 70.7 0.0 0.0
Houston 58 62 0.1 0.0 78.6 0.0 0.0
Milwaukee 58 62 0.5 0.1 79.7 0.1 0.0
Pittsburgh 49 70 0.0 0.0 67.3 0.0 0.0
St. Louis 69 53 84.3 2.5 90.9 19.5 6.5








Arizona 54 67 0.0 0.0 75.2 0.0 0.0
Colorado 67 53 18.8 39.3 89.9 12.7 3.6
Los Angeles (N) 71 50 78.4 14.5 94.3 25.8 10.4
San Diego 51 71 0.0 0.0 67.8 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 66 54 2.8 11.1 86.9 2.9 0.7

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

August 18 MLB Oddds


W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Baltimore 48 70 0.0 0.0 67.8 0.0 0.0
Boston 66 51 8.1 62.4 91.9 23.3 15.9
New York (A) 74 45 90.9 8.0 99.1 34.7 25.7
Tampa Bay 63 54 1.0 16.2 87.3 5.0 3.3
Toronto 55 61 0.0 0.0 76.3 0.0 0.0








Chicago (A) 61 58 35.6 0.1 82.2 6.6 3.4
Cleveland 51 66 0.4 0.0 71.5 0.1 0.0
Detroit 62 55 59.0 0.1 82.9 9.4 4.2
Kansas City 46 72 0.0 0.0 65.3 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 56 62 5.1 0.0 75.7 0.7 0.3








Los Angeles (A) 71 45 89.6 2.8 93.3 17.2 9.1
Oakland 53 65 0.0 0.0 71.5 0.0 0.0
Seattle 61 57 0.2 0.3 79.5 0.0 0.0
Texas 67 50 10.2 10.1 87.0 2.9 1.2









W L Div% WC% Pr W Lg% WS%
Atlanta 62 56 13.6 16.4 87.6 8.5 3.5
Florida 63 55 6.3 8.4 86.3 3.2 0.9
New York (N) 55 63 0.0 0.0 75.8 0.0 0.0
Philadelphia 66 49 80.1 7.0 93.2 24.4 10.0
Washington 43 75 0.0 0.0 63.3 0.0 0.0








Chicago (N) 60 56 16.8 9.4 86.1 6.3 2.2
Cincinnati 50 67 0.0 0.0 71.6 0.0 0.0
Houston 57 61 0.2 0.0 78.5 0.0 0.0
Milwaukee 58 60 0.8 0.3 80.7 0.2 0.1
Pittsburgh 47 70 0.0 0.0 66.2 0.0 0.0
St. Louis 68 52 82.2 3.4 91.0 19.5 6.5








Arizona 54 65 0.0 0.0 76.3 0.0 0.0
Colorado 65 53 14.4 35.3 89.0 10.3 2.9
Los Angeles (N) 70 49 83.6 10.8 94.4 25.3 10.2
San Diego 50 70 0.0 0.0 67.7 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 64 54 2.1 8.9 85.9 2.2 0.5