Tuesday, October 28, 2008

10/28 Update (I think)

I feel slightly less confident about my in-game win probability estimates than pre-game ones, but here goes:





WS%
Tampa Bay


.130
Philadelphia


.870





Phi in 5


.598
Phi in 6


.176
Phi in 7


.096





Tam in 7


.130

Monday, October 27, 2008

10/27 Update and Breakdown





WS%
Tampa Bay


.143
Philadelphia


.857





Phi in 5


.558
Phi in 6


.193
Phi in 7


.106





Tam in 7


.143

Saturday, October 25, 2008

10/26 Update and Breakdown





WS%
Tampa Bay


.338
Philadelphia


.662





Phi in 5


.284
Phi in 6


.218
Phi in 7


.160





Tam in 6


.122
Tam in 7


.216

Thursday, October 23, 2008

10/24 Update





WS%
Tampa Bay


.516
Philadelphia


.484

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

10/23 Update





WS%
Tampa Bay


.376
Philadelphia


.624

Simple Excel Calculator

A few people have asked for a simple Excel file that takes the estimated odds for each game of a 7-game series and converts it into the probability of one team winning the series. I uploaded one here, for anyone who's interested.

Monday, October 20, 2008

World Series Update

The offshore sportsbooks opened Tampa as a 58% favorite in the World Series. Most or all of the difference between that number and mine is due to Brett Myers; I've bet on Myers in virtually every game he's started this year, so clearly I have a higher opinion of the wifebeater than the market does.





WS%
Tampa Bay


.545
Philadelphia


.455

Sunday, October 19, 2008

10/19 Update

I edited the World Series numbers to reflect the greater advantage the sports betting market is placing on the AL entrant. I'm not sure anyone really knows how to measure the gap between the leagues now, but my guess is it's somewhere in between my previous estimates and the current World Series lines.




Lg% WS%
Boston

.467 .265
Tampa Bay

.533 .290





Philadelphia


.445

Thursday, October 16, 2008

10/17 Update




Lg% WS%
Boston

.235 .131
Tampa Bay

.765 .399





Philadelphia

1.000 .470

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

10/16 Update




Lg% WS%
Boston

.122 .068
Tampa Bay

.878 .458





Philadelphia


.474

Kazmir Starts Game 5

I actually don't think this is a pointless move. Yes, Kazmir and Shields were both going to start two ALCS games either way, and their home/road splits this year aren't statistically significant. However, Kazmir is a lefty whose weakness is allowing home runs. If you can choose to have a giant left field wall for only one of these two pitchers, Kaz is the pick.

That said, this didn't make much of a difference in the odds:




Lg% WS%
Boston

.122 .068
Tampa Bay

.878 .460





Philadelphia

.899 .426
Los Angeles (N)

.101 .045

10/15 Update




Lg% WS%
Boston

.123 .069
Tampa Bay

.877 .460





Philadelphia

.899 .426
Los Angeles (N)

.101 .045

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

10/14 Update




Lg% WS%
Boston

.318 .178
Tampa Bay

.682 .358





Philadelphia

.899 .419
Los Angeles (N)

.101 .045

Monday, October 13, 2008

10/13 Update




Lg% WS%
Boston

.532 .301
Tampa Bay

.468 .247





Philadelphia

.702 .322
Los Angeles (N)

.298 .130

Sunday, October 12, 2008

10/12 Update




Lg% WS%
Boston

.532 .300
Tampa Bay

.468 .246





Philadelphia

.809 .371
Los Angeles (N)

.191 .083

Friday, October 10, 2008

10/11 Update




Lg% WS%
Boston

.679 .382
Tampa Bay

.321 .169





Philadelphia

.809 .367
Los Angeles (N)

.191 .082

Thursday, October 9, 2008

10/10 Update

Updates:

- Phillies win Game 1
- Mike Lowell ruled out for ALCS




Lg% WS%
Boston

.504 .285
Tampa Bay

.496 .263





Philadelphia

.670 .308
Los Angeles (N)

.330 .145

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

NLCS Rotations Set

Also replacing Takashi Saito on the LAD roster with Hong-Chih Kuo:




Lg% WS%
Boston

.520 .295
Tampa Bay

.480 .256





Philadelphia

.542 .249
Los Angeles (N)

.458 .200

ALCS Rotations Set




Lg% WS%
Boston

.520 .296
Tampa Bay

.480 .256





Philadelphia

.529 .243
Los Angeles (N)

.471 .206

Monday, October 6, 2008

10/7 Update




Lg% WS%
Boston

.518 .294
Tampa Bay

.482 .257





Philadelphia

.529 .243
Los Angeles (N)

.471 .206

10/6 Update



DS% Lg% WS%
Boston
.765 .416 .231
Tampa Bay
.822 .408 .216
Chicago (A)
.178 .065 .025
Los Angeles (A)
.235 .111 .053










Philadelphia

.529 .260
Los Angeles (N)

.471 .215

Saturday, October 4, 2008

Sunday Update



DS% Lg% WS%
Boston
.927 .493 .277
Tampa Bay
.911 .442 .236
Chicago (A)
.089 .032 .012
Los Angeles (A)
.073 .033 .016










Philadelphia
.763 .402 .193





Milwaukee
.237 .106 .046
Los Angeles

.492 .219

Friday, October 3, 2008

Saturday Update

Changes:

- Derek Lowe starting Game 4 on short rest



DS% Lg% WS%
Boston
.927 .493 .274
Tampa Bay
.911 .442 .234
Chicago (A)
.089 .032 .012
Los Angeles (A)
.073 .033 .016










Philadelphia
.877 .457 .220
Chicago (N)
.117 .062 .030
Milwaukee
.123 .055 .024
Los Angeles
.883 .426 .190

Thursday, October 2, 2008

Friday Update



DS% Lg% WS%
Boston
.762 .417 .232
Tampa Bay
.788 .392 .207
Chicago (A)
.212 .077 .030
Los Angeles (A)
.238 .114 .054










Philadelphia
.877 .456 .225
Chicago (N)
.127 .067 .033
Milwaukee
.123 .055 .024
Los Angeles
.873 .422 .193

Buehrle Starting ALDS Game Five

In his BP article today, Nate Silver makes the excellent point that the White Sox will probably bring Mark Buehrle back for Game 5of the ALDS on full rest, starting their "ace" while getting an additional lefty in the series against the left-leaning Rays.

I don't buy into the notion that Kazmir will also start Game 5; the Rays could have simply given him the Game 1 start on a week's rest and didn't do it.

Anyway, here's an update to reflect Chicago's rotation plans. Note that their chances of winning actually go down:



DS% Lg% WS%
Boston
.762 .431 .241
Tampa Bay
.640 .318 .168
Chicago (A)
.360 .131 .051
Los Angeles (A)
.238 .119 .057










Philadelphia
.689 .352 .176
Chicago (N)
.328 .176 .089
Milwaukee
.311 .137 .062
Los Angeles
.672 .335 .156

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Thursday Update



DS% Lg% WS%
Boston
.762 .432 .241
Tampa Bay
.630 .313 .166
Chicago (A)
.370 .135 .052
Los Angeles (A)
.238 .119 .057










Philadelphia
.688 .351 .176
Chicago (N)
.328 .176 .090
Milwaukee
.312 .138 .062
Los Angeles
.672 .335 .156

Pregame Update

Changes:
- Carl Crawford activated
- J.D. Drew activated
- Mike Lowell activated



DS% Lg% WS%
Boston
.553 .314 .175
Tampa Bay
.630 .323 .171
Chicago (A)
.370 .139 .054
Los Angeles (A)
.447 .224 .107










Philadelphia
.543 .272 .139
Chicago (N)
.520 .284 .147
Milwaukee
.457 .200 .092
Los Angeles
.480 .245 .116

PSA

Betting recommendations for the playoffs will be conducted over here.