June 30 Update and WS Odds

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	.2	1.3	77.0
Boston	44.8	22.3	95.2
New York (A)	18.3	29.1	90.3
Tampa Bay	35.8	26.6	93.7
Toronto	1.0	5.5	81.3
Chicago (A)	39.9	2.8	86.3
Cleveland	9.7	.6	79.8
Detroit	33.2	2.5	85.2
Kansas City	1.0	.0	73.2
Minnesota	16.3	1.1	81.8
Los Angeles (A)	63.2	3.8	91.2
Oakland	31.5	3.9	86.0
Seattle	.0	.0	67.9
Texas	5.3	.5	78.9
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	18.7	8.3	82.3
Florida	5.3	2.7	77.6
New York (N)	36.5	11.0	85.7
Philadelphia	39.5	11.0	86.2
Washington	.0	.0	66.2
Chicago (N)	61.9	11.6	93.2
Cincinnati	.6	2.4	75.4
Houston	.5	2.2	75.1
Milwaukee	22.1	24.8	86.4
Pittsburgh	.2	1.0	73.1
St. Louis	14.7	22.3	84.6
Arizona	52.3	1.4	82.6
Colorado	3.8	.0	71.1
Los Angeles (N)	35.7	1.1	80.0
San Diego	3.0	.0	70.5
San Francisco	5.1	.1	72.0

	WS%
Boston	14.6
Tampa Bay	10.9
New York (A)	10.3
Chicago (N)	9.1
Los Angeles (A)	7.9
New York (N)	6.8
Philadelphia	5.5
Detroit	4.9
Arizona	4.8
Milwaukee	4.4
Oakland	3.8
Chicago (A)	3.7
Los Angeles (N)	3.2
Atlanta	3.0
St. Louis	2.1
Cleveland	1.3
Minnesota	1.0
Toronto	.9
Texas	.4
Florida	.3
Colorado	.2
San Francisco	.2
San Diego	.2
Cincinnati	.2
Houston	.1
Baltimore	.1
Kansas City	.1
Pittsburgh	.0
Seattle	.0
Washington	.0

June 29 Update

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	.2	1.5	77.4
Boston	47.3	21.2	95.8
New York (A)	20.0	30.2	90.9
Tampa Bay	31.9	28.6	93.2
Toronto	.7	4.7	80.8
Chicago (A)	38.1	2.3	85.7
Cleveland	12.4	.6	80.3
Detroit	32.5	2.0	84.8
Kansas City	1.4	.0	73.6
Minnesota	15.7	.9	81.3
Los Angeles (A)	60.7	3.8	90.6
Oakland	34.6	3.8	86.4
Seattle	.0	.0	67.4
Texas	4.7	.4	78.3
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	20.8	9.1	82.9
Florida	4.4	2.3	77.1
New York (N)	32.9	11.1	85.2
Philadelphia	41.9	11.0	86.7
Washington	.0	.0	65.7
Chicago (N)	63.8	10.8	93.8
Cincinnati	.4	2.0	74.8
Houston	.4	1.8	74.5
Milwaukee	23.2	25.9	86.9
Pittsburgh	.2	1.3	73.5
St. Louis	11.9	21.5	84.1
Arizona	52.4	1.7	83.1
Colorado	4.0	.1	71.6
Los Angeles (N)	36.6	1.4	80.6
San Diego	3.2	.0	71.0
San Francisco	3.9	.1	71.5

June 25 Update

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	.2	1.7	77.0
Boston	48.4	20.0	95.2
New York (A)	20.9	28.6	90.2
Tampa Bay	29.4	28.0	91.9
Toronto	1.1	5.4	80.5
Chicago (A)	37.1	1.8	84.4
Cleveland	17.6	.7	80.4
Detroit	28.2	1.4	82.7
Kansas City	1.8	.0	72.9
Minnesota	15.3	.6	79.8
Los Angeles (A)	66.0	4.8	92.4
Oakland	30.3	6.2	86.3
Seattle	.0	.0	66.6
Texas	3.7	.7	78.2
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	17.7	7.1	82.4
Florida	6.0	2.7	78.2
New York (N)	34.5	10.1	85.7
Philadelphia	41.8	10.0	87.0
Washington	.0	.0	65.1
Chicago (N)	64.7	10.6	95.1
Cincinnati	.4	2.2	75.3
Houston	.2	1.5	74.2
Milwaukee	22.1	27.7	87.6
Pittsburgh	.2	1.4	74.0
St. Louis	12.3	23.8	85.1
Arizona	54.4	1.7	83.9
Colorado	6.2	.1	73.2
Los Angeles (N)	29.2	1.0	79.6
San Diego	6.7	.1	73.5
San Francisco	3.5	.0	71.4

June 23 Update and WS Odds

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	.2	1.5	76.4
Boston	48.9	19.9	95.4
New York (A)	23.1	29.4	90.7
Tampa Bay	26.9	29.0	91.5
Toronto	.8	4.8	79.9
Chicago (A)	34.5	1.8	83.9
Cleveland	19.9	.9	81.0
Detroit	31.2	1.6	83.3
Kansas City	1.2	.0	71.7
Minnesota	13.2	.5	79.2
Los Angeles (A)	64.4	4.5	91.5
Oakland	30.3	5.1	85.7
Seattle	.0	.0	65.5
Texas	5.3	.8	78.6
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	18.7	10.1	83.5
Florida	5.3	3.6	78.7
New York (N)	36.6	12.7	87.0
Philadelphia	39.3	12.6	87.5
Washington	.0	.0	66.0
Chicago (N)	68.8	8.3	95.5
Cincinnati	.6	2.4	75.9
Houston	.2	1.1	73.6
Milwaukee	18.7	24.3	86.5
Pittsburgh	.2	1.0	73.5
St. Louis	11.6	20.4	84.5
Arizona	52.2	1.9	83.9
Colorado	7.9	.2	74.3
Los Angeles (N)	30.3	1.2	80.2
San Diego	7.0	.1	74.0
San Francisco	2.6	.0	70.8

	WS%
Boston	14.6
New York (A)	11.4
Chicago (N)	9.4
Tampa Bay	9.4
Los Angeles (A)	8.4
New York (N)	7.3
Philadelphia	5.7
Arizona	4.8
Detroit	4.4
Milwaukee	3.9
Oakland	3.7
Atlanta	3.1
Chicago (A)	3.0
Los Angeles (N)	2.7
Cleveland	2.6
St. Louis	1.8
Minnesota	.8
Toronto	.7
Colorado	.5
San Diego	.5
Texas	.4
Florida	.4
Cincinnati	.2
San Francisco	.1
Baltimore	.1
Kansas City	.1
Houston	.1
Pittsburgh	.0
Seattle	.0
Washington	.0

June 21 Update

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	0.3	1.3	77.3
Boston	49.1	18.2	95.7
New York (A)	23.6	25.0	91.1
Tampa Bay	26.2	25.1	91.6
Toronto	0.9	3.3	80.1
Chicago (A)	40.5	4.7	84.8
Cleveland	20.7	2.8	81.0
Detroit	28.1	3.8	82.6
Kansas City	0.8	0.1	70.6
Minnesota	9.9	1.2	77.9
Los Angeles (A)	60.0	6.1	90.2
Oakland	35.1	7.3	86.0
Seattle	0.0	0.0	66.4
Texas	4.8	1.2	77.6
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	14.3	10.8	82.7
Florida	4.3	4.1	78.3
New York (N)	35.9	15.0	87.3
Philadelphia	45.4	13.8	89.0
Washington	0.0	0.0	66.8
Chicago (N)	67.3	8.2	94.5
Cincinnati	0.8	1.7	75.8
Houston	0.3	0.7	73.5
Milwaukee	17.9	17.8	85.4
Pittsburgh	0.3	0.7	73.3
St. Louis	13.3	15.5	84.2
Arizona	55.7	5.0	85.2
Colorado	6.5	0.9	74.2
Los Angeles (N)	27.3	4.2	80.3
San Diego	7.7	1.1	74.9
San Francisco	2.9	0.3	71.7

June 18 Update

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	0.2	0.8	76.0
Boston	50.4	17.5	96.1
New York (A)	23.2	25.1	91.1
Tampa Bay	24.9	25.1	91.5
Toronto	1.3	4.6	81.2
Chicago (A)	39.0	4.6	84.6
Cleveland	22.5	3.0	81.4
Detroit	30.4	3.9	83.0
Kansas City	0.8	0.0	70.3
Minnesota	7.3	0.8	76.7
Los Angeles (A)	58.0	6.2	89.9
Oakland	37.1	7.2	86.3
Seattle	0.0	0.0	65.9
Texas	4.9	1.1	77.5
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	17.2	12.3	83.8
Florida	4.5	4.4	78.7
New York (N)	31.2	15.3	86.8
Philadelphia	47.1	13.5	89.6
Washington	0.0	0.0	66.8
Chicago (N)	67.3	8.2	94.7
Cincinnati	0.9	1.8	76.0
Houston	0.3	0.7	73.6
Milwaukee	17.6	17.2	85.4
Pittsburgh	0.3	0.7	73.4
St. Louis	13.6	15.2	84.4
Arizona	54.9	4.7	84.9
Colorado	6.5	0.8	74.0
Los Angeles (N)	27.6	3.8	80.1
San Diego	8.4	1.0	74.9
San Francisco	2.6	0.2	71.2

June 18 Update

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	0.1	0.6	75.2
Boston	50.1	17.2	95.5
New York (A)	23.2	23.9	90.5
Tampa Bay	24.5	24.0	90.8
Toronto	2.1	5.9	81.8
Chicago (A)	35.9	4.3	83.7
Cleveland	27.2	3.5	82.0
Detroit	29.4	3.7	82.5
Kansas City	0.7	0.0	69.6
Minnesota	6.7	0.7	76.0
Los Angeles (A)	58.6	6.6	90.2
Oakland	36.2	8.0	86.3
Seattle	0.0	0.0	66.2
Texas	5.1	1.4	77.8
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	15.7	12.0	83.5
Florida	3.9	3.9	78.3
New York (N)	29.5	15.5	86.6
Philadelphia	50.9	12.7	90.4
Washington	0.0	0.0	67.4
Chicago (N)	69.3	7.5	95.5
Cincinnati	1.0	2.3	76.6
Houston	0.4	1.0	74.2
Milwaukee	14.4	16.7	84.9
Pittsburgh	0.4	1.0	74.2
St. Louis	14.4	16.8	85.0
Arizona	54.9	4.7	84.9
Colorado	5.6	0.6	73.4
Los Angeles (N)	25.8	3.6	79.7
San Diego	10.5	1.4	75.7
San Francisco	3.3	0.3	71.7

June 16 Update and WS Odds

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	0.1	0.6	74.7
Boston	51.8	16.4	95.6
New York (A)	21.4	23.5	89.9
Tampa Bay	23.9	23.8	90.5
Toronto	2.7	7.2	82.3
Chicago (A)	33.6	4.3	83.1
Cleveland	29.7	3.9	82.4
Detroit	29.9	4.0	82.4
Kansas City	0.6	0.0	68.8
Minnesota	6.2	0.7	75.6
Los Angeles (A)	60.3	6.3	90.3
Oakland	34.7	7.8	85.9
Seattle	0.1	0.0	66.4
Texas	5.0	1.4	77.4
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	16.4	11.9	83.5
Florida	3.7	3.6	78.0
New York (N)	29.4	15.1	86.5
Philadelphia	50.5	12.6	90.3
Washington	0.0	0.0	67.6
Chicago (N)	70.6	7.0	96.0
Cincinnati	1.2	2.8	77.2
Houston	0.5	1.2	74.8
Milwaukee	11.8	15.6	84.3
Pittsburgh	0.4	1.1	74.6
St. Louis	15.4	18.0	85.5
Arizona	57.3	4.8	85.7
Colorado	5.4	0.7	73.4
Los Angeles (N)	22.9	3.5	79.4
San Diego	11.6	1.7	76.4
San Francisco	2.9	0.3	71.6

	WS%
Boston	14.4
New York (A)	9.7
Chicago (N)	9.5
Los Angeles (A)	8.0
Tampa Bay	7.9
Philadelphia	7.2
New York (N)	6.5
Arizona	5.9
Detroit	4.7
Oakland	4.6
Cleveland	4.5
Atlanta	3.1
Chicago (A)	3.1
Milwaukee	2.4
Los Angeles (N)	2.3
St. Louis	1.9
Toronto	1.3
San Diego	0.9
Texas	0.4
Minnesota	0.4
Colorado	0.4
Florida	0.3
Cincinnati	0.2
San Francisco	0.1
Houston	0.1
Pittsburgh	0.1
Baltimore	0.0
Kansas City	0.0
Seattle	0.0
Washington	0.0

June 15 Update

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	0.2	0.7	75.0
Boston	49.8	17.1	95.1
New York (A)	20.0	22.6	89.4
Tampa Bay	26.5	23.4	90.8
Toronto	3.5	8.4	82.9
Chicago (A)	36.9	4.6	83.8
Cleveland	28.6	3.9	82.2
Detroit	27.2	3.8	81.9
Kansas City	0.4	0.0	68.0
Minnesota	6.9	0.8	76.0
Los Angeles (A)	60.2	6.0	89.9
Oakland	34.1	7.2	85.3
Seattle	0.1	0.0	66.9
Texas	5.6	1.4	77.3
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	16.8	12.9	84.0
Florida	2.9	3.2	77.6
New York (N)	28.5	15.8	86.6
Philadelphia	51.9	12.7	90.9
Washington	0.0	0.0	67.0
Chicago (N)	70.0	7.1	95.5
Cincinnati	1.8	3.4	77.8
Houston	0.8	1.5	75.4
Milwaukee	12.2	14.3	84.0
Pittsburgh	0.4	1.0	74.1
St. Louis	14.8	16.0	84.9
Arizona	58.6	5.1	86.4
Colorado	3.8	0.5	72.8
Los Angeles (N)	23.5	4.1	80.0
San Diego	11.2	1.9	76.7
San Francisco	3.0	0.4	72.1

June 11 Update

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	0.2	0.7	74.6
Boston	47.7	17.7	94.3
New York (A)	19.5	21.6	88.7
Tampa Bay	27.5	22.7	90.5
Toronto	5.1	10.3	83.4
Chicago (A)	44.9	5.0	84.9
Cleveland	30.0	4.1	82.1
Detroit	18.8	2.7	79.6
Kansas City	0.5	0.0	67.7
Minnesota	5.8	0.7	74.8
Los Angeles (A)	63.4	5.6	90.3
Oakland	29.5	7.0	84.2
Seattle	0.1	0.0	67.1
Texas	6.9	1.8	77.7
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	18.0	12.2	84.3
Florida	4.0	3.7	78.4
New York (N)	27.5	14.5	86.4
Philadelphia	50.6	12.4	90.7
Washington	0.0	0.0	66.7
Chicago (N)	65.4	8.6	94.6
Cincinnati	2.2	3.2	77.9
Houston	1.8	2.6	77.2
Milwaukee	14.3	13.6	84.4
Pittsburgh	0.6	0.9	74.3
St. Louis	15.7	14.4	84.8
Arizona	54.0	5.8	86.5
Colorado	3.1	0.5	72.7
Los Angeles (N)	32.3	5.7	82.5
San Diego	7.2	1.3	75.6
San Francisco	3.4	0.5	73.0

June 10 Update

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	0.2	0.6	74.0
Boston	49.6	17.2	94.9
New York (A)	17.1	21.7	88.3
Tampa Bay	29.0	23.5	91.1
Toronto	4.2	9.5	82.9
Chicago (A)	47.4	5.1	85.3
Cleveland	27.9	4.0	81.7
Detroit	17.3	2.6	79.2
Kansas City	0.6	0.0	68.2
Minnesota	6.7	0.8	75.3
Los Angeles (A)	61.3	6.0	89.9
Oakland	32.4	7.3	84.6
Seattle	0.2	0.0	67.6
Texas	6.1	1.6	77.1
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	18.2	13.1	84.8
Florida	2.9	3.1	77.8
New York (N)	28.1	15.4	87.0
Philadelphia	50.8	12.8	91.3
Washington	0.0	0.0	66.2
Chicago (N)	63.7	9.0	94.1
Cincinnati	2.8	3.5	78.4
Houston	1.6	2.1	76.6
Milwaukee	16.7	13.9	84.9
Pittsburgh	0.8	1.1	74.7
St. Louis	14.4	12.9	84.3
Arizona	52.6	5.5	86.0
Colorado	2.9	0.4	72.2
Los Angeles (N)	31.2	5.1	82.1
San Diego	8.9	1.5	76.2
San Francisco	4.3	0.6	73.5

June 8 Update

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	0.2	0.7	74.4
Boston	47.6	17.9	94.4
New York (A)	18.1	21.6	88.4
Tampa Bay	29.5	23.0	91.0
Toronto	4.5	9.8	83.0
Chicago (A)	41.2	4.9	84.0
Cleveland	29.8	4.1	81.9
Detroit	18.7	2.7	79.3
Kansas City	0.7	0.0	68.2
Minnesota	9.5	1.2	76.4
Los Angeles (A)	66.2	5.3	91.1
Oakland	28.9	7.3	84.2
Seattle	0.2	0.0	67.4
Texas	4.7	1.3	76.4
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	19.9	13.9	85.3
Florida	2.8	3.0	77.7
New York (N)	30.5	15.8	87.7
Philadelphia	46.9	13.9	90.7
Washington	0.0	0.0	67.1
Chicago (N)	63.0	8.9	93.6
Cincinnati	3.3	3.5	78.3
Houston	2.1	2.3	77.0
Milwaukee	16.6	12.5	84.4
Pittsburgh	0.6	0.7	73.6
St. Louis	14.4	11.5	83.8
Arizona	55.8	5.8	87.1
Colorado	3.0	0.5	72.7
Los Angeles (N)	31.8	5.8	82.7
San Diego	6.8	1.3	75.6
San Francisco	2.7	0.4	72.4

BP has "fixed" their PECOTA playoff odds (check out the difference!) but they've gone from not adjusting for current season stats to over-adjusting. Clay Davenport may be the only person in the world who thinks the A's are a better team than the Yankees right now.

No, Virginia, the A's are not the favorites in the AL West, and the White Sox aren't bound to make the playoffs 75% of the time.

Remember, take everything with a grain of salt--one of those big kosher ones.

June 7 Update

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	0.2	0.6	73.6
Boston	47.1	17.5	93.9
New York (A)	18.2	20.1	88.0
Tampa Bay	28.1	21.9	90.3
Toronto	6.4	11.2	83.7
Chicago (A)	37.5	4.7	83.3
Cleveland	33.3	4.4	82.5
Detroit	17.1	2.4	78.8
Kansas City	0.9	0.1	68.7
Minnesota	11.2	1.5	77.0
Los Angeles (A)	62.3	6.1	90.5
Oakland	31.8	7.9	84.9
Seattle	0.2	0.0	67.9
Texas	5.7	1.7	77.1
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	21.8	14.6	85.9
Florida	2.3	2.5	77.2
New York (N)	33.1	15.9	88.3
Philadelphia	42.8	14.9	90.2
Washington	0.0	0.1	67.9
Chicago (N)	64.4	8.6	94.3
Cincinnati	3.4	4.0	78.8
Houston	2.0	2.5	77.2
Milwaukee	17.7	13.9	85.1
Pittsburgh	0.7	0.9	74.1
St. Louis	11.8	10.8	83.4
Arizona	56.6	5.0	86.6
Colorado	3.0	0.4	72.1
Los Angeles (N)	30.8	4.7	81.8
San Diego	7.0	1.0	75.0
San Francisco	2.5	0.3	71.5

World Series Odds

The crystal ball is still a little hazy for the playoffs, since we're not sure who will play who, but here are my current estimates for each team's World Series chances:

	WS%
Boston	12.6
New York (N)	8.9
New York (A)	8.7
Chicago (N)	8.6
Tampa Bay	8.3
Los Angeles (A)	7.9
Arizona	6.6
Philadelphia	5.5
Cleveland	5.2
Detroit	4.3
Atlanta	4.0
Oakland	4.0
Los Angeles (N)	3.3
Toronto	3.0
Chicago (A)	2.3
Milwaukee	2.3
St. Louis	1.3
Minnesota	0.9
Texas	0.7
Cincinnati	0.5
San Diego	0.4
Florida	0.3
Houston	0.2
Colorado	0.1
San Francisco	0.1
Kansas City	0.1
Pittsburgh	0.1
Seattle	0.0
Baltimore	0.0
Washington	0.0

I'm not sure whose number is more surprising, the Rays' or the Mets'.

June 2 Update

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	0.1	0.2	71.4
Boston	41.8	19.4	93.6
New York	19.7	20.7	88.9
Tampa Bay	30.5	21.8	91.4
Toronto	7.9	13.0	85.0
Chicago	26.2	3.4	81.1
Cleveland	32.5	4.0	82.4
Detroit	27.0	3.5	81.3
Kansas City	1.3	0.1	69.7
Minnesota	12.9	1.6	77.5
Los Angeles	58.9	5.2	88.7
Oakland	31.8	5.4	83.6
Seattle	0.6	0.1	68.8
Texas	8.7	1.6	77.3
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	21.0	14.3	85.7
Florida	3.4	3.7	78.2
New York	40.7	15.2	89.9
Philadelphia	34.8	15.9	88.8
Washington	0.1	0.1	68.8
Chicago	64.2	8.4	94.0
Cincinnati	4.4	4.4	79.1
Houston	2.3	2.4	76.9
Milwaukee	14.7	11.4	83.8
Pittsburgh	0.7	0.7	73.4
St. Louis	13.8	10.9	83.5
Arizona	60.4	5.3	88.1
Colorado	1.9	0.3	71.1
Los Angeles	30.8	5.8	82.6
San Diego	5.2	0.9	74.5
San Francisco	1.8	0.3	71.0

June 1 Update

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	0.1	0.3	71.9
Boston	38.9	19.9	93.1
New York	23.0	20.8	89.7
Tampa Bay	28.6	21.3	91.0
Toronto	9.4	14.0	85.6
Chicago	27.4	3.5	81.5
Cleveland	35.3	4.2	83.2
Detroit	25.6	3.3	81.1
Kansas City	1.0	0.1	69.0
Minnesota	10.7	1.3	76.8
Los Angeles	57.5	4.9	88.1
Oakland	31.3	4.7	83.2
Seattle	0.7	0.1	68.9
Texas	10.5	1.6	77.6
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	24.3	14.8	86.4
Florida	3.8	3.9	78.4
New York	38.2	15.3	89.2
Philadelphia	33.6	15.6	88.4
Washington	0.1	0.1	69.3
Chicago	63.3	8.5	93.5
Cincinnati	4.4	3.9	78.6
Houston	3.4	3.1	77.8
Milwaukee	13.7	10.0	83.0
Pittsburgh	0.8	0.8	73.5
St. Louis	14.4	10.4	83.3
Arizona	56.7	5.9	87.5
Colorado	2.2	0.4	71.7
Los Angeles	34.1	6.2	83.3
San Diego	5.6	1.1	74.8
San Francisco	1.5	0.2	70.5