Friday, May 30, 2008

May 31 Update


Div% WC% Proj W
Baltimore 0.1 0.2 71.0
Boston 38.8 19.3 93.9
New York 24.7 20.3 90.7
Tampa Bay 25.9 20.5 91.0
Toronto 10.5 14.0 86.1








Chicago 23.6 3.7 81.4
Cleveland 37.6 5.1 84.6
Detroit 28.3 4.3 82.6
Kansas City 0.7 0.1 67.7
Minnesota 9.8 1.5 76.8








Los Angeles 56.7 4.9 88.4
Oakland 33.4 4.7 83.7
Seattle 0.9 0.1 68.0
Texas 9.0 1.3 76.3













Div% WC% Proj W
Atlanta 25.6 15.7 87.6
Florida 2.3 2.7 76.8
New York 38.3 15.8 90.4
Philadelphia 33.7 16.2 89.4
Washington 0.1 0.2 69.0








Chicago 62.2 8.5 94.0
Cincinnati 4.3 3.3 77.8
Houston 3.9 3.1 77.4
Milwaukee 14.1 9.3 82.9
Pittsburgh 0.7 0.6 72.0
St. Louis 14.8 9.6 83.2








Arizona 52.9 6.4 87.6
Colorado 3.0 0.6 72.0
Los Angeles 36.7 6.6 84.3
San Diego 5.7 1.2 74.4
San Francisco 1.8 0.3 70.3

May 30 Update


Div% WC% Proj W
Baltimore 0.1 0.3 71.4
Boston 39.3 18.8 93.5
New York 24.7 19.9 90.3
Tampa Bay 25.9 20.0 90.5
Toronto 9.9 13.2 85.4








Chicago 25.5 4.1 81.8
Cleveland 36.1 5.2 84.2
Detroit 26.5 4.3 82.0
Kansas City 0.9 0.1 68.3
Minnesota 11.0 1.7 77.2








Los Angeles 57.6 5.4 89.1
Oakland 34.4 5.7 84.4
Seattle 0.8 0.1 68.5
Texas 7.1 1.3 75.9













Div% WC% Proj W
Atlanta 27.2 16.1 88.0
Florida 2.7 3.2 77.4
New York 39.2 15.9 90.6
Philadelphia 30.8 16.4 88.8
Washington 0.1 0.2 68.4








Chicago 61.7 8.5 93.6
Cincinnati 4.1 3.0 77.3
Houston 4.8 3.4 77.9
Milwaukee 14.2 8.8 82.6
Pittsburgh 1.0 0.7 72.5
St. Louis 14.3 8.8 82.7








Arizona 56.0 6.3 88.4
Colorado 3.3 0.7 72.6
Los Angeles 34.0 6.7 83.9
San Diego 4.9 1.1 74.0
San Francisco 1.8 0.3 70.5

Thursday, May 29, 2008

May 29 Update


Div% WC% Proj W
Baltimore 0.1 0.3 71.4
Boston 39.0 19.1 93.5
New York 24.5 20.1 90.3
Tampa Bay 27.7 20.4 91.0
Toronto 8.8 12.4 84.9








Chicago 24.2 3.8 81.2
Cleveland 37.1 5.1 84.2
Detroit 27.4 4.2 82.0
Kansas City 1.2 0.1 68.7
Minnesota 10.2 1.5 76.7








Los Angeles 56.7 5.7 89.1
Oakland 35.8 6.0 84.9
Seattle 0.7 0.1 68.0
Texas 6.8 1.3 75.9













Div% WC% Proj W
Atlanta 26.3 15.4 87.5
Florida 2.9 3.2 77.4
New York 38.5 15.4 90.2
Philadelphia 32.1 15.8 88.8
Washington 0.2 0.2 68.8








Chicago 59.8 8.9 93.1
Cincinnati 4.8 3.4 77.8
Houston 5.5 3.8 78.3
Milwaukee 16.0 9.4 83.2
Pittsburgh 0.8 0.6 72.0
St. Louis 13.1 8.1 82.1








Arizona 56.6 6.5 88.9
Colorado 3.5 0.8 73.1
Los Angeles 34.7 7.3 84.5
San Diego 3.9 0.9 73.5
San Francisco 1.4 0.3 69.9

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Warning: Does Not Imply Causation

Currently, the AL standings have a correlation coefficient (r-value) of .218 with my preseason projections. The NL is at .088. Those numbers don't say much about my prognosticating abilities, though I'm doing pretty well on these.

However, once we strip out the luck, things change. When comparing the preseason forecasts to the current third-order W-L records, we get .431 for the AL and .396 for the NL. Not perfect, but much better.

The difference? Third-order wins tell us which "breakout" teams are for real (Rays) or not (Astros, Marlins). You can forecast skills, but not luck.

May 27 Update


Div% WC% Proj W
Baltimore 0.1 0.3 71.2
Boston 42.5 18.8 94.8
New York 23.3 20.9 90.5
Tampa Bay 26.2 21.3 91.2
Toronto 7.9 12.4 85.0








Chicago 24.5 3.7 81.3
Cleveland 37.0 4.9 84.1
Detroit 28.7 4.2 82.3
Kansas City 1.6 0.1 69.7
Minnesota 8.2 1.1 75.6








Los Angeles 57.0 5.4 89.1
Oakland 35.8 5.8 84.8
Seattle 0.5 0.1 67.3
Texas 6.7 1.2 75.7













Div% WC% Proj W
Atlanta 31.9 15.5 88.6
Florida 3.9 4.0 78.3
New York 35.2 15.4 89.3
Philadelphia 28.8 15.3 87.9
Washington 0.2 0.2 68.9








Chicago 58.0 8.8 92.0
Cincinnati 4.4 2.6 76.8
Houston 6.2 3.6 78.1
Milwaukee 15.1 7.8 82.2
Pittsburgh 1.4 0.8 72.9
St. Louis 14.9 7.7 82.1








Arizona 57.8 7.3 90.2
Colorado 3.5 1.1 74.1
Los Angeles 35.1 8.8 85.5
San Diego 2.9 1.0 73.5
San Francisco 0.6 0.2 68.7

Monday, May 26, 2008

May 26 Update


Div% WC% Proj W
Baltimore 0.1 0.2 70.6
Boston 41.5 18.8 94.3
New York 27.2 20.9 91.2
Tampa Bay 23.8 20.6 90.3
Toronto 7.3 11.5 84.4








Chicago 21.0 3.5 80.6
Cleveland 38.3 5.3 84.6
Detroit 31.2 4.8 83.1
Kansas City 1.8 0.2 70.2
Minnesota 7.6 1.1 75.6








Los Angeles 55.1 5.6 88.6
Oakland 36.1 5.8 84.7
Seattle 0.7 0.1 67.8
Texas 8.1 1.5 76.4













Div% WC% Proj W
Atlanta 31.1 15.4 88.3
Florida 3.4 3.4 77.6
New York 39.5 15.0 90.1
Philadelphia 25.9 14.9 87.1
Washington 0.2 0.2 69.3








Chicago 57.7 8.8 91.8
Cincinnati 4.6 2.7 76.8
Houston 6.6 3.7 78.2
Milwaukee 14.2 7.4 81.7
Pittsburgh 1.4 0.8 72.7
St. Louis 15.4 7.8 82.1








Arizona 57.7 7.7 90.5
Colorado 3.8 1.5 74.8
Los Angeles 35.3 9.5 86.0
San Diego 2.6 1.0 73.4
San Francisco 0.6 0.2 68.7

Sunday, May 25, 2008

May 25 Update

I wasn't sure I'd live to see the day that a major sportsbook offered a bigger payout for the Yankees to win the AL East than the Tampa Bay Sun Rays. That day has arrived, over at Matchbook.

The weird thing is, my numbers--which think the Rays are absolutely for real--don't even agree with this sentiment. I guess being on the cover of Sports Illustrated does wonders to encourage bettors.

Meanwhile, I still think the Marlins and Astros are going to be afterthoughts in September, but I've certainly been wrong before.


Div% WC% Proj W
Baltimore 0.1 0.3 71.2
Boston 45.4 17.7 94.9
New York 25.8 21.2 90.6
Tampa Bay 22.0 20.6 89.6
Toronto 6.6 10.9 83.7








Chicago 19.2 3.7 80.3
Cleveland 39.7 6.0 85.1
Detroit 32.3 5.5 83.6
Kansas City 2.0 0.3 70.8
Minnesota 6.7 1.2 75.2








Los Angeles 57.8 5.5 88.9
Oakland 33.7 5.8 84.0
Seattle 0.9 0.1 68.4
Texas 7.6 1.4 75.9













Div% WC% Proj W
Atlanta 32.6 15.4 88.6
Florida 2.4 2.5 76.5
New York 40.7 14.8 90.3
Philadelphia 24.1 14.6 86.6
Washington 0.2 0.2 68.9








Chicago 58.6 9.0 92.5
Cincinnati 4.4 2.9 77.0
Houston 6.5 4.2 78.6
Milwaukee 14.1 8.1 82.1
Pittsburgh 1.0 0.6 72.1
St. Louis 15.3 8.6 82.5








Arizona 57.6 7.4 90.1
Colorado 4.1 1.4 74.6
Los Angeles 34.7 8.9 85.4
San Diego 2.8 0.9 73.3
San Francisco 0.9 0.3 69.6

Saturday, May 24, 2008

May 24 Update


Div% WC% Proj W
Baltimore 0.1 0.4 71.6
Boston 49.0 16.6 95.5
New York 24.4 21.4 90.2
Tampa Bay 20.6 20.7 89.1
Toronto 5.9 10.3 83.2








Chicago 20.8 4.2 80.7
Cleveland 38.5 6.2 84.9
Detroit 30.9 5.6 83.2
Kansas City 2.4 0.4 71.4
Minnesota 7.4 1.4 75.6








Los Angeles 57.3 5.5 88.5
Oakland 32.6 5.6 83.4
Seattle 1.2 0.1 68.9
Texas 8.9 1.6 76.2













Div% WC% Proj W
Atlanta 31.7 15.7 88.5
Florida 2.6 2.7 76.7
New York 39.6 15.2 90.1
Philadelphia 25.9 15.2 87.1
Washington 0.2 0.3 69.5








Chicago 61.3 8.2 92.8
Cincinnati 4.1 2.6 76.6
Houston 5.9 3.7 78.0
Milwaukee 13.5 7.6 81.7
Pittsburgh 0.9 0.6 71.7
St. Louis 14.2 7.9 81.9








Arizona 57.0 7.9 90.3
Colorado 4.1 1.6 75.0
Los Angeles 35.3 9.6 85.9
San Diego 2.9 1.1 73.8
San Francisco 0.7 0.2 69.4

Friday, May 23, 2008

May 23 Update


Div% WC% Proj W
Baltimore 0.2 0.5 72.0
Boston 52.5 15.3 96.2
New York 23.1 21.7 89.8
Tampa Bay 19.2 20.7 88.7
Toronto 5.0 9.6 82.5








Chicago 20.9 4.8 81.1
Cleveland 39.8 7.0 85.5
Detroit 30.9 6.4 83.6
Kansas City 2.4 0.4 71.7
Minnesota 6.1 1.4 75.2








Los Angeles 57.7 5.3 88.1
Oakland 32.2 5.3 82.9
Seattle 1.6 0.2 69.5
Texas 8.5 1.5 75.6













Div% WC% Proj W
Atlanta 31.8 16.4 89.0
Florida 2.4 2.9 77.0
New York 39.8 15.7 90.7
Philadelphia 25.8 15.9 87.6
Washington 0.1 0.2 68.9








Chicago 60.3 8.2 92.3
Cincinnati 4.2 2.3 76.4
Houston 5.6 3.1 77.5
Milwaukee 15.5 7.8 82.2
Pittsburgh 1.2 0.6 72.2
St. Louis 13.3 6.9 81.4








Arizona 55.0 8.0 89.9
Colorado 3.6 1.3 74.5
Los Angeles 37.7 9.4 86.4
San Diego 3.1 1.1 73.9
San Francisco 0.6 0.2 68.9

Monday, May 19, 2008

May 19 Update


Div% WC% Proj W
Baltimore 0.3 0.7 72.5
Boston 45.5 17.2 93.9
New York 26.0 20.4 89.7
Tampa Bay 21.2 19.5 88.4
Toronto 7.0 10.7 83.0








Chicago 14.9 3.6 79.2
Cleveland 50.2 6.8 87.5
Detroit 24.8 5.7 82.1
Kansas City 4.1 0.9 73.6
Minnesota 6.1 1.4 75.1








Los Angeles 55.7 5.6 87.7
Oakland 33.3 5.6 83.1
Seattle 2.7 0.4 71.2
Texas 8.3 1.5 75.5













Div% WC% Proj W
Atlanta 22.2 16.2 86.5
Florida 1.5 2.0 75.2
New York 53.8 12.7 93.4
Philadelphia 22.4 16.3 86.6
Washington 0.2 0.3 69.3








Chicago 63.3 7.9 93.2
Cincinnati 6.7 4.5 78.5
Houston 4.6 3.2 77.0
Milwaukee 13.6 8.2 81.7
Pittsburgh 1.3 0.9 72.7
St. Louis 10.6 6.7 80.5








Arizona 61.5 7.4 91.5
Colorado 3.8 1.8 75.0
Los Angeles 31.0 10.3 85.2
San Diego 3.1 1.5 74.3
San Francisco 0.4 0.2 68.2

Saturday, May 17, 2008

May 18 Update


Div% WC% Proj W
Baltimore 0.3 0.7 72.8
Boston 43.4 18.0 93.6
New York 28.4 20.6 90.3
Tampa Bay 22.2 19.9 88.8
Toronto 5.8 9.4 82.4








Chicago 12.7 3.2 78.5
Cleveland 51.4 6.8 87.9
Detroit 26.0 6.0 82.5
Kansas City 3.4 0.7 73.0
Minnesota 6.5 1.6 75.5








Los Angeles 53.5 5.6 87.2
Oakland 35.1 5.6 83.4
Seattle 2.3 0.3 70.5
Texas 9.1 1.6 75.8













Div% WC% Proj W
Atlanta 21.1 15.6 86.2
Florida 1.7 2.3 75.7
New York 51.8 13.2 93.0
Philadelphia 25.3 16.6 87.3
Washington 0.1 0.2 68.8








Chicago 62.3 8.0 92.8
Cincinnati 6.4 4.0 78.1
Houston 4.4 2.8 76.6
Milwaukee 15.4 8.5 82.1
Pittsburgh 1.6 1.0 73.2
St. Louis 9.9 6.0 80.0








Arizona 59.4 7.9 91.1
Colorado 3.4 1.6 74.6
Los Angeles 32.9 10.4 85.7
San Diego 3.8 1.8 75.0
San Francisco 0.5 0.2 68.8

May 17 Update


Div% WC% Proj W
Baltimore 0.2 0.6 72.2
Boston 39.2 19.2 92.7
New York 31.2 20.6 90.9
Tampa Bay 24.0 20.3 89.2
Toronto 5.4 9.0 82.0








Chicago 11.2 2.9 78.0
Cleveland 54.4 6.7 88.6
Detroit 23.7 5.8 82.0
Kansas City 3.6 0.9 73.4
Minnesota 7.1 1.8 76.0








Los Angeles 56.7 5.3 87.7
Oakland 33.3 5.3 82.9
Seattle 2.1 0.3 70.0
Texas 7.9 1.3 75.0













Div% WC% Proj W
Atlanta 22.5 15.8 86.7
Florida 1.4 1.9 75.1
New York 49.3 13.9 92.6
Philadelphia 26.6 16.6 87.7
Washington 0.2 0.3 69.4








Chicago 63.1 7.9 93.3
Cincinnati 5.1 3.4 77.5
Houston 4.9 3.3 77.4
Milwaukee 17.6 9.7 83.2
Pittsburgh 1.2 0.8 72.6
St. Louis 8.3 5.4 79.5








Arizona 61.4 7.4 91.6
Colorado 3.0 1.3 74.2
Los Angeles 30.9 10.1 85.3
San Diego 4.2 1.9 75.4
San Francisco 0.6 0.2 69.2