May 31 Update

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	0.1	0.2	71.0
Boston	38.8	19.3	93.9
New York	24.7	20.3	90.7
Tampa Bay	25.9	20.5	91.0
Toronto	10.5	14.0	86.1
Chicago	23.6	3.7	81.4
Cleveland	37.6	5.1	84.6
Detroit	28.3	4.3	82.6
Kansas City	0.7	0.1	67.7
Minnesota	9.8	1.5	76.8
Los Angeles	56.7	4.9	88.4
Oakland	33.4	4.7	83.7
Seattle	0.9	0.1	68.0
Texas	9.0	1.3	76.3
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	25.6	15.7	87.6
Florida	2.3	2.7	76.8
New York	38.3	15.8	90.4
Philadelphia	33.7	16.2	89.4
Washington	0.1	0.2	69.0
Chicago	62.2	8.5	94.0
Cincinnati	4.3	3.3	77.8
Houston	3.9	3.1	77.4
Milwaukee	14.1	9.3	82.9
Pittsburgh	0.7	0.6	72.0
St. Louis	14.8	9.6	83.2
Arizona	52.9	6.4	87.6
Colorado	3.0	0.6	72.0
Los Angeles	36.7	6.6	84.3
San Diego	5.7	1.2	74.4
San Francisco	1.8	0.3	70.3

May 30 Update

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	0.1	0.3	71.4
Boston	39.3	18.8	93.5
New York	24.7	19.9	90.3
Tampa Bay	25.9	20.0	90.5
Toronto	9.9	13.2	85.4
Chicago	25.5	4.1	81.8
Cleveland	36.1	5.2	84.2
Detroit	26.5	4.3	82.0
Kansas City	0.9	0.1	68.3
Minnesota	11.0	1.7	77.2
Los Angeles	57.6	5.4	89.1
Oakland	34.4	5.7	84.4
Seattle	0.8	0.1	68.5
Texas	7.1	1.3	75.9
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	27.2	16.1	88.0
Florida	2.7	3.2	77.4
New York	39.2	15.9	90.6
Philadelphia	30.8	16.4	88.8
Washington	0.1	0.2	68.4
Chicago	61.7	8.5	93.6
Cincinnati	4.1	3.0	77.3
Houston	4.8	3.4	77.9
Milwaukee	14.2	8.8	82.6
Pittsburgh	1.0	0.7	72.5
St. Louis	14.3	8.8	82.7
Arizona	56.0	6.3	88.4
Colorado	3.3	0.7	72.6
Los Angeles	34.0	6.7	83.9
San Diego	4.9	1.1	74.0
San Francisco	1.8	0.3	70.5

May 29 Update

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	0.1	0.3	71.4
Boston	39.0	19.1	93.5
New York	24.5	20.1	90.3
Tampa Bay	27.7	20.4	91.0
Toronto	8.8	12.4	84.9
Chicago	24.2	3.8	81.2
Cleveland	37.1	5.1	84.2
Detroit	27.4	4.2	82.0
Kansas City	1.2	0.1	68.7
Minnesota	10.2	1.5	76.7
Los Angeles	56.7	5.7	89.1
Oakland	35.8	6.0	84.9
Seattle	0.7	0.1	68.0
Texas	6.8	1.3	75.9
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	26.3	15.4	87.5
Florida	2.9	3.2	77.4
New York	38.5	15.4	90.2
Philadelphia	32.1	15.8	88.8
Washington	0.2	0.2	68.8
Chicago	59.8	8.9	93.1
Cincinnati	4.8	3.4	77.8
Houston	5.5	3.8	78.3
Milwaukee	16.0	9.4	83.2
Pittsburgh	0.8	0.6	72.0
St. Louis	13.1	8.1	82.1
Arizona	56.6	6.5	88.9
Colorado	3.5	0.8	73.1
Los Angeles	34.7	7.3	84.5
San Diego	3.9	0.9	73.5
San Francisco	1.4	0.3	69.9

Warning: Does Not Imply Causation

Currently, the AL standings have a correlation coefficient (r-value) of .218 with my preseason projections. The NL is at .088. Those numbers don't say much about my prognosticating abilities, though I'm doing pretty well on these.

However, once we strip out the luck, things change. When comparing the preseason forecasts to the current third-order W-L records, we get .431 for the AL and .396 for the NL. Not perfect, but much better.

The difference? Third-order wins tell us which "breakout" teams are for real (Rays) or not (Astros, Marlins). You can forecast skills, but not luck.

May 27 Update

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	0.1	0.3	71.2
Boston	42.5	18.8	94.8
New York	23.3	20.9	90.5
Tampa Bay	26.2	21.3	91.2
Toronto	7.9	12.4	85.0
Chicago	24.5	3.7	81.3
Cleveland	37.0	4.9	84.1
Detroit	28.7	4.2	82.3
Kansas City	1.6	0.1	69.7
Minnesota	8.2	1.1	75.6
Los Angeles	57.0	5.4	89.1
Oakland	35.8	5.8	84.8
Seattle	0.5	0.1	67.3
Texas	6.7	1.2	75.7
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	31.9	15.5	88.6
Florida	3.9	4.0	78.3
New York	35.2	15.4	89.3
Philadelphia	28.8	15.3	87.9
Washington	0.2	0.2	68.9
Chicago	58.0	8.8	92.0
Cincinnati	4.4	2.6	76.8
Houston	6.2	3.6	78.1
Milwaukee	15.1	7.8	82.2
Pittsburgh	1.4	0.8	72.9
St. Louis	14.9	7.7	82.1
Arizona	57.8	7.3	90.2
Colorado	3.5	1.1	74.1
Los Angeles	35.1	8.8	85.5
San Diego	2.9	1.0	73.5
San Francisco	0.6	0.2	68.7

May 26 Update

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	0.1	0.2	70.6
Boston	41.5	18.8	94.3
New York	27.2	20.9	91.2
Tampa Bay	23.8	20.6	90.3
Toronto	7.3	11.5	84.4
Chicago	21.0	3.5	80.6
Cleveland	38.3	5.3	84.6
Detroit	31.2	4.8	83.1
Kansas City	1.8	0.2	70.2
Minnesota	7.6	1.1	75.6
Los Angeles	55.1	5.6	88.6
Oakland	36.1	5.8	84.7
Seattle	0.7	0.1	67.8
Texas	8.1	1.5	76.4
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	31.1	15.4	88.3
Florida	3.4	3.4	77.6
New York	39.5	15.0	90.1
Philadelphia	25.9	14.9	87.1
Washington	0.2	0.2	69.3
Chicago	57.7	8.8	91.8
Cincinnati	4.6	2.7	76.8
Houston	6.6	3.7	78.2
Milwaukee	14.2	7.4	81.7
Pittsburgh	1.4	0.8	72.7
St. Louis	15.4	7.8	82.1
Arizona	57.7	7.7	90.5
Colorado	3.8	1.5	74.8
Los Angeles	35.3	9.5	86.0
San Diego	2.6	1.0	73.4
San Francisco	0.6	0.2	68.7

May 25 Update

I wasn't sure I'd live to see the day that a major sportsbook offered a bigger payout for the Yankees to win the AL East than the Tampa Bay Sun Rays. That day has arrived, over at Matchbook.

The weird thing is, my numbers--which think the Rays are absolutely for real--don't even agree with this sentiment. I guess being on the cover of Sports Illustrated does wonders to encourage bettors.

Meanwhile, I still think the Marlins and Astros are going to be afterthoughts in September, but I've certainly been wrong before.

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	0.1	0.3	71.2
Boston	45.4	17.7	94.9
New York	25.8	21.2	90.6
Tampa Bay	22.0	20.6	89.6
Toronto	6.6	10.9	83.7
Chicago	19.2	3.7	80.3
Cleveland	39.7	6.0	85.1
Detroit	32.3	5.5	83.6
Kansas City	2.0	0.3	70.8
Minnesota	6.7	1.2	75.2
Los Angeles	57.8	5.5	88.9
Oakland	33.7	5.8	84.0
Seattle	0.9	0.1	68.4
Texas	7.6	1.4	75.9
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	32.6	15.4	88.6
Florida	2.4	2.5	76.5
New York	40.7	14.8	90.3
Philadelphia	24.1	14.6	86.6
Washington	0.2	0.2	68.9
Chicago	58.6	9.0	92.5
Cincinnati	4.4	2.9	77.0
Houston	6.5	4.2	78.6
Milwaukee	14.1	8.1	82.1
Pittsburgh	1.0	0.6	72.1
St. Louis	15.3	8.6	82.5
Arizona	57.6	7.4	90.1
Colorado	4.1	1.4	74.6
Los Angeles	34.7	8.9	85.4
San Diego	2.8	0.9	73.3
San Francisco	0.9	0.3	69.6

May 24 Update

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	0.1	0.4	71.6
Boston	49.0	16.6	95.5
New York	24.4	21.4	90.2
Tampa Bay	20.6	20.7	89.1
Toronto	5.9	10.3	83.2
Chicago	20.8	4.2	80.7
Cleveland	38.5	6.2	84.9
Detroit	30.9	5.6	83.2
Kansas City	2.4	0.4	71.4
Minnesota	7.4	1.4	75.6
Los Angeles	57.3	5.5	88.5
Oakland	32.6	5.6	83.4
Seattle	1.2	0.1	68.9
Texas	8.9	1.6	76.2
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	31.7	15.7	88.5
Florida	2.6	2.7	76.7
New York	39.6	15.2	90.1
Philadelphia	25.9	15.2	87.1
Washington	0.2	0.3	69.5
Chicago	61.3	8.2	92.8
Cincinnati	4.1	2.6	76.6
Houston	5.9	3.7	78.0
Milwaukee	13.5	7.6	81.7
Pittsburgh	0.9	0.6	71.7
St. Louis	14.2	7.9	81.9
Arizona	57.0	7.9	90.3
Colorado	4.1	1.6	75.0
Los Angeles	35.3	9.6	85.9
San Diego	2.9	1.1	73.8
San Francisco	0.7	0.2	69.4

May 23 Update

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	0.2	0.5	72.0
Boston	52.5	15.3	96.2
New York	23.1	21.7	89.8
Tampa Bay	19.2	20.7	88.7
Toronto	5.0	9.6	82.5
Chicago	20.9	4.8	81.1
Cleveland	39.8	7.0	85.5
Detroit	30.9	6.4	83.6
Kansas City	2.4	0.4	71.7
Minnesota	6.1	1.4	75.2
Los Angeles	57.7	5.3	88.1
Oakland	32.2	5.3	82.9
Seattle	1.6	0.2	69.5
Texas	8.5	1.5	75.6
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	31.8	16.4	89.0
Florida	2.4	2.9	77.0
New York	39.8	15.7	90.7
Philadelphia	25.8	15.9	87.6
Washington	0.1	0.2	68.9
Chicago	60.3	8.2	92.3
Cincinnati	4.2	2.3	76.4
Houston	5.6	3.1	77.5
Milwaukee	15.5	7.8	82.2
Pittsburgh	1.2	0.6	72.2
St. Louis	13.3	6.9	81.4
Arizona	55.0	8.0	89.9
Colorado	3.6	1.3	74.5
Los Angeles	37.7	9.4	86.4
San Diego	3.1	1.1	73.9
San Francisco	0.6	0.2	68.9

May 19 Update

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	0.3	0.7	72.5
Boston	45.5	17.2	93.9
New York	26.0	20.4	89.7
Tampa Bay	21.2	19.5	88.4
Toronto	7.0	10.7	83.0
Chicago	14.9	3.6	79.2
Cleveland	50.2	6.8	87.5
Detroit	24.8	5.7	82.1
Kansas City	4.1	0.9	73.6
Minnesota	6.1	1.4	75.1
Los Angeles	55.7	5.6	87.7
Oakland	33.3	5.6	83.1
Seattle	2.7	0.4	71.2
Texas	8.3	1.5	75.5
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	22.2	16.2	86.5
Florida	1.5	2.0	75.2
New York	53.8	12.7	93.4
Philadelphia	22.4	16.3	86.6
Washington	0.2	0.3	69.3
Chicago	63.3	7.9	93.2
Cincinnati	6.7	4.5	78.5
Houston	4.6	3.2	77.0
Milwaukee	13.6	8.2	81.7
Pittsburgh	1.3	0.9	72.7
St. Louis	10.6	6.7	80.5
Arizona	61.5	7.4	91.5
Colorado	3.8	1.8	75.0
Los Angeles	31.0	10.3	85.2
San Diego	3.1	1.5	74.3
San Francisco	0.4	0.2	68.2

May 18 Update

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	0.3	0.7	72.8
Boston	43.4	18.0	93.6
New York	28.4	20.6	90.3
Tampa Bay	22.2	19.9	88.8
Toronto	5.8	9.4	82.4
Chicago	12.7	3.2	78.5
Cleveland	51.4	6.8	87.9
Detroit	26.0	6.0	82.5
Kansas City	3.4	0.7	73.0
Minnesota	6.5	1.6	75.5
Los Angeles	53.5	5.6	87.2
Oakland	35.1	5.6	83.4
Seattle	2.3	0.3	70.5
Texas	9.1	1.6	75.8
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	21.1	15.6	86.2
Florida	1.7	2.3	75.7
New York	51.8	13.2	93.0
Philadelphia	25.3	16.6	87.3
Washington	0.1	0.2	68.8
Chicago	62.3	8.0	92.8
Cincinnati	6.4	4.0	78.1
Houston	4.4	2.8	76.6
Milwaukee	15.4	8.5	82.1
Pittsburgh	1.6	1.0	73.2
St. Louis	9.9	6.0	80.0
Arizona	59.4	7.9	91.1
Colorado	3.4	1.6	74.6
Los Angeles	32.9	10.4	85.7
San Diego	3.8	1.8	75.0
San Francisco	0.5	0.2	68.8

May 17 Update

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	0.2	0.6	72.2
Boston	39.2	19.2	92.7
New York	31.2	20.6	90.9
Tampa Bay	24.0	20.3	89.2
Toronto	5.4	9.0	82.0
Chicago	11.2	2.9	78.0
Cleveland	54.4	6.7	88.6
Detroit	23.7	5.8	82.0
Kansas City	3.6	0.9	73.4
Minnesota	7.1	1.8	76.0
Los Angeles	56.7	5.3	87.7
Oakland	33.3	5.3	82.9
Seattle	2.1	0.3	70.0
Texas	7.9	1.3	75.0
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	22.5	15.8	86.7
Florida	1.4	1.9	75.1
New York	49.3	13.9	92.6
Philadelphia	26.6	16.6	87.7
Washington	0.2	0.3	69.4
Chicago	63.1	7.9	93.3
Cincinnati	5.1	3.4	77.5
Houston	4.9	3.3	77.4
Milwaukee	17.6	9.7	83.2
Pittsburgh	1.2	0.8	72.6
St. Louis	8.3	5.4	79.5
Arizona	61.4	7.4	91.6
Colorado	3.0	1.3	74.2
Los Angeles	30.9	10.1	85.3
San Diego	4.2	1.9	75.4
San Francisco	0.6	0.2	69.2

May 16 Update

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	0.2	0.5	71.6
Boston	39.7	19.0	92.7
New York	31.4	20.4	90.9
Tampa Bay	22.3	19.8	88.7
Toronto	6.4	10.0	82.6
Chicago	9.6	2.6	77.4
Cleveland	55.5	6.7	89.0
Detroit	26.0	6.3	82.7
Kansas City	2.9	0.7	72.7
Minnesota	6.0	1.5	75.4
Los Angeles	54.5	5.5	87.2
Oakland	36.1	5.6	83.5
Seattle	2.4	0.3	70.6
Texas	7.0	1.1	74.5
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	23.1	15.3	86.5
Florida	1.7	2.1	75.5
New York	50.7	13.2	92.6
Philadelphia	24.3	15.6	86.9
Washington	0.2	0.3	69.8
Chicago	60.5	8.5	92.7
Cincinnati	4.6	3.0	77.0
Houston	5.4	3.6	77.7
Milwaukee	18.4	9.8	83.3
Pittsburgh	1.4	0.9	72.9
St. Louis	9.8	6.1	80.2
Arizona	58.7	7.9	90.9
Colorado	3.7	1.6	74.9
Los Angeles	33.1	10.1	85.7
San Diego	3.8	1.7	75.0
San Francisco	0.8	0.3	69.8

May 13 Update

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	0.1	0.3	70.4
Boston	43.6	18.4	93.9
New York	34.2	20.8	92.0
Tampa Bay	18.4	19.6	88.0
Toronto	3.7	7.2	81.0
Chicago	8.4	2.2	76.8
Cleveland	48.2	7.3	87.5
Detroit	33.7	7.2	84.5
Kansas City	1.7	0.4	71.0
Minnesota	8.0	2.1	76.7
Los Angeles	52.7	6.3	87.7
Oakland	39.9	6.7	85.2
Seattle	1.9	0.3	70.6
Texas	5.4	1.1	74.4
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	23.8	16.0	87.0
Florida	2.2	2.8	76.6
New York	52.7	12.8	93.3
Philadelphia	21.1	15.4	86.3
Washington	0.2	0.2	69.2
Chicago	58.9	8.7	92.1
Cincinnati	3.4	2.1	75.7
Houston	4.8	2.9	77.0
Milwaukee	20.5	9.8	83.7
Pittsburgh	1.3	0.8	72.4
St. Louis	11.1	6.2	80.5
Arizona	53.9	8.3	89.5
Colorado	6.0	2.3	76.3
Los Angeles	33.9	9.3	85.4
San Diego	5.2	2.0	75.7
San Francisco	1.1	0.4	70.3

May 12 Update

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	0.1	0.3	70.5
Boston	45.1	18.3	94.5
New York	35.5	21.2	92.5
Tampa Bay	15.8	19.3	87.4
Toronto	3.5	7.3	81.0
Chicago	9.6	2.6	77.5
Cleveland	48.2	7.4	87.6
Detroit	33.7	7.3	84.6
Kansas City	1.6	0.3	70.8
Minnesota	6.9	1.8	76.1
Los Angeles	52.2	6.2	87.4
Oakland	40.4	6.4	85.0
Seattle	2.3	0.4	71.0
Texas	5.2	1.0	73.9
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	23.1	16.2	87.1
Florida	2.4	3.1	77.1
New York	53.6	12.7	93.7
Philadelphia	20.8	15.6	86.4
Washington	0.1	0.2	68.6
Chicago	57.8	8.7	91.6
Cincinnati	3.5	1.9	75.5
Houston	4.5	2.4	76.4
Milwaukee	19.8	9.0	83.2
Pittsburgh	1.4	0.7	72.4
St. Louis	13.1	6.7	81.0
Arizona	53.8	8.4	89.6
Colorado	6.2	2.5	76.6
Los Angeles	33.5	9.4	85.5
San Diego	5.4	2.1	76.0
San Francisco	1.1	0.4	70.7

Has any first place team this late in the season had as little chance of winning their division as the Marlins? 23-14 record aside, Florida is in a division with three good teams that are all above .500, and they're simply not a good team.

Playoff Odds for May 10

For some reason, Baseball Prospectus isn't properly updating their PECOTA playoff odds this season.

This blog is probably down to zero readers by now, but just in case it isn't, here are my odds estimates through the games of May 8:

	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Baltimore	.1	.3	70.3
Boston	47.3	17.1	94.5
New York	34.2	20.8	91.7
Tampa Bay	13.6	17.1	86.2
Toronto	4.8	8.8	81.7
Chicago	9.6	2.7	77.4
Cleveland	44.8	7.8	86.8
Detroit	37.1	7.7	85.2
Kansas City	1.6	.4	70.7
Minnesota	7.0	2.0	76.1
Los Angeles	55.5	6.6	88.7
Oakland	38.5	7.4	85.2
Seattle	1.9	.4	70.9
Texas	4.2	1.0	73.8
	Div%	WC%	Proj W
Atlanta	23.6	17.0	87.8
Florida	1.3	1.9	75.7
New York	51.5	13.7	93.8
Philadelphia	23.5	17.0	87.8
Washington	.2	.3	69.8
Chicago	54.3	8.4	90.2
Cincinnati	4.4	1.8	75.6
Houston	3.7	1.5	75.0
Milwaukee	21.6	7.7	83.0
Pittsburgh	1.3	.5	71.6
St. Louis	14.7	5.8	80.9
Arizona	54.5	9.0	90.9
Colorado	6.4	3.1	77.8
Los Angeles	35.3	10.7	86.9
San Diego	3.2	1.5	75.1
San Francisco	.5	.2	69.4