- Right now the pennant and WS numbers are sketchy, because playoff rotations aren't set in stone. If the Red Sox do something stupid like make Dice-K (or Jon Lester) their Game 1 starter, or the Rays do something smart like put Andy Sonnanstine in their playoff rotation, the numbers could change substantially.
- Some of you may think the NL's chances of winning the World Series seem a little high. I might agree with you, but I'm not sure. While my numbers account for a substantial difference in quality between the leagues, the NL has a big gap between the caliber of the playoff teams and the also-rans. Thus, the NL playoff teams aren't that much worse than the AL playoff teams; rather, the disparity is mostly between the lower-rated teams in each league.
For example, I think the Cubs are a better team than the Angels and maybe the Rays (though not the Red Sox), but the out-of-contention Yankees and Blue Jays are clearly much better than the out-of-contention Astros and Marlins. In the BP adjusted standings, only one AL team is under 70 third-order wins (I think you can figure out who) but five NL teams fail to reach that mark.
- The percentages are adjusted for the starting pitching matchups in each of the teams' remaining games. I assumed every team will keep throwing its normal pitchers out there, which isn't totally accurate, but better than a blind guess.
|Los Angeles (A)||95||59||1.000||.000||.207||.094|
|New York (N)||86||68||.356||.501||.191||.087|