Sunday, September 21, 2008

September 21 and Notes

Quick notes:

- Right now the pennant and WS numbers are sketchy, because playoff rotations aren't set in stone. If the Red Sox do something stupid like make Dice-K (or Jon Lester) their Game 1 starter, or the Rays do something smart like put Andy Sonnanstine in their playoff rotation, the numbers could change substantially.

- Some of you may think the NL's chances of winning the World Series seem a little high. I might agree with you, but I'm not sure. While my numbers account for a substantial difference in quality between the leagues, the NL has a big gap between the caliber of the playoff teams and the also-rans. Thus, the NL playoff teams aren't that much worse than the AL playoff teams; rather, the disparity is mostly between the lower-rated teams in each league.

For example, I think the Cubs are a better team than the Angels and maybe the Rays (though not the Red Sox), but the out-of-contention Yankees and Blue Jays are clearly much better than the out-of-contention Astros and Marlins. In the BP adjusted standings, only one AL team is under 70 third-order wins (I think you can figure out who) but five NL teams fail to reach that mark.

- The percentages are adjusted for the starting pitching matchups in each of the teams' remaining games. I assumed every team will keep throwing its normal pitchers out there, which isn't totally accurate, but better than a blind guess.



W L
Div% WC%
Lg% WS%
Boston 90 64
.104 .896
.355 .206
Tampa Bay 92 61
.896 .104
.294 .151









Chicago (A) 85 69
.807 .000
.118 .045
Minnesota 83 72
.193 .000
.027 .011









Los Angeles (A) 95 59
1.000 .000
.207 .094


















New York (N) 86 68
.356 .501
.191 .087
Philadelphia 87 68
.644 .324
.235 .115









Chicago (N) 93 60
1.000 .000
.291 .152
Milwaukee 84 71
.000 .173
.039 .019









Arizona 77 77
.021 .000
.004 .002
Los Angeles 81 74
.979 .000
.240 .119

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