Friday, May 9, 2008

Playoff Odds for May 10

For some reason, Baseball Prospectus isn't properly updating their PECOTA playoff odds this season.

This blog is probably down to zero readers by now, but just in case it isn't, here are my odds estimates through the games of May 8:


Div% WC% Proj W
Baltimore .1 .3 70.3
Boston 47.3 17.1 94.5
New York 34.2 20.8 91.7
Tampa Bay 13.6 17.1 86.2
Toronto 4.8 8.8 81.7








Chicago 9.6 2.7 77.4
Cleveland 44.8 7.8 86.8
Detroit 37.1 7.7 85.2
Kansas City 1.6 .4 70.7
Minnesota 7.0 2.0 76.1








Los Angeles 55.5 6.6 88.7
Oakland 38.5 7.4 85.2
Seattle 1.9 .4 70.9
Texas 4.2 1.0 73.8













Div% WC% Proj W
Atlanta 23.6 17.0 87.8
Florida 1.3 1.9 75.7
New York 51.5 13.7 93.8
Philadelphia 23.5 17.0 87.8
Washington .2 .3 69.8








Chicago 54.3 8.4 90.2
Cincinnati 4.4 1.8 75.6
Houston 3.7 1.5 75.0
Milwaukee 21.6 7.7 83.0
Pittsburgh 1.3 .5 71.6
St. Louis 14.7 5.8 80.9








Arizona 54.5 9.0 90.9
Colorado 6.4 3.1 77.8
Los Angeles 35.3 10.7 86.9
San Diego 3.2 1.5 75.1
San Francisco .5 .2 69.4

5 comments:

CardSharpCook said...

woohoo!!!! Was really hoping you'd start this early.

CardSharpCook said...

What up with Florida? They are 21-14 and you had projected 74.4 wins. Now it is 75.7? Seems like being 7 games over .500 should account for more than 1.3 games. Has something else changed? Have they played a really weak schedule? Are you accounting for SOS?

Eugene said...

Wow, the market seems lower on the Yankees than you do. I don't think I've ever seen the Yankees be underrated.

j holz said...

"Has something else changed? Have they played a really weak schedule? Are you accounting for SOS?"

1. Yes. They've decided they want to put Burke Badenhop and Ricky Nolasco in their rotation, and leave Cameron Maybin in the minors.
2. Yes
3. Yes

All that said, I think the "Opening Day" update wasn't definitive enough for its title, and Florida should have been at about 72 wins rather than 74.4.

"Wow, the market seems lower on the Yankees than you do."

Yes and no. I'm assuming fairly clean recoveries for A-Rod and Posada--which may easily not happen--and that they'll come to their senses and let Kennedy pitch ahead of Igawa/Rasner. That NYY projection has a lot more downside than upside.

Jordan said...

holla! all of your posts are definitely appreciated. keep up the good work.