|Jax ||6.3 ||4.2 |
|Dal ||50.3 ||10.7 |
|GB ||35.7 ||7.1 |
|Sea||7.1 ||1.1 |
|NYG ||6.9 ||1.1|
Lesson learned: Predicting NFL lines is a lot harder than doing so for baseball.
As I said before, the percentages are strictly a reflection of my predicted lines for the playoff games. This week, Green Bay opened as a much bigger favorite than I expected, so their chances have gone substantially up.
In fact, with the Packers opening as a bigger favorite than the Cowboys next week, I wonder who Vegas thinks is really the best team in the NFC.
San Diego also sees their chances dip, despite winning. The opening lines for the Pats-Jags and Chargers-Colts hurt the Chargers triply:
- They're less likely to beat the Colts
- They're more likely to face the Pats, since the Jags are bigger dogs than I anticipated
- They're less likely to beat the Pats, should they get there
Futhermore, the numbers expected the Colts to beat the Titans anyway.