Sunday, January 6, 2008

Updated NFL Probabilities

Team Conf SB



NE 67.5 57.3
Ind 22.0 15.8
SD 4.1 2.6
Jax
6.3
4.2



Dal
50.3
10.7
GB
35.7
7.1
Sea 7.1
1.1
NYG
6.9
1.1




Lesson learned: Predicting NFL lines is a lot harder than doing so for baseball.

As I said before, the percentages are strictly a reflection of my predicted lines for the playoff games. This week, Green Bay opened as a much bigger favorite than I expected, so their chances have gone substantially up.

In fact, with the Packers opening as a bigger favorite than the Cowboys next week, I wonder who Vegas thinks is really the best team in the NFC.

San Diego also sees their chances dip, despite winning. The opening lines for the Pats-Jags and Chargers-Colts hurt the Chargers triply:

- They're less likely to beat the Colts
- They're more likely to face the Pats, since the Jags are bigger dogs than I anticipated
- They're less likely to beat the Pats, should they get there

Futhermore, the numbers expected the Colts to beat the Titans anyway.

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