Monday, December 29, 2008

Playoff Week 1 Odds

Standard caveats apply.


Conf SB
Ten .299 .139
Pit .322 .163
Mia .044 .017
SD .088 .043
Ind .133 .071
Bal .114 .059




Conf SB
NYG .466 .258
Car .279 .135
Min .041 .016
Ari .029 .008
Atl .070 .030
Phi .115 .062

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Week 17 Conference/Super Bowl Odds


Conf SB
Ten .284 .131
Pit .328 .161
Ind .146 .075
Den .013 .006
NYJ .020 .009
NE .046 .020
Mia .045 .020
Bal .078 .035
SD .040 .017




Conf SB
NYG .467 .275
Car .206 .107
Min .061 .028
Ari .044 .016
TB .031 .014
Dal .043 .024
Atl .127 .056
Phi .005 .003
Chi .010 .005

Week 17 Division And Wild Card Odds

AFC E
Mia .435
NE .412
NYJ .153


AFC W
Den .250
SD .750


NFC N
Chi .132
Min .868


NFC S
Atl .361
Car .639


AFC WC
Bal .912
NE .038
NYJ .049


NFC WC
Car .361
TB .464
Atl .639
Dal .460
Phi .056
Chi .020

Friday, December 19, 2008

Week 16 Conference/Super Bowl Odds

Still in their experimental phase.


Conf SB
Ten .256 .108
Pit .346 .170
Ind .146 .074
Den .059 .021
NYJ .062 .026
NE .037 .015
Mia .036 .015
Bal .054 .024
SD .005 .002




Conf SB
NYG .388 .231
Car .253 .133
Min .093 .045
Ari .063 .028
TB .083 .039
Dal .054 .032
Atl .036 .017
Phi .030 .018
Chi .004 .002

Week 16 Division Odds

AFC E
Mia .308
NE .170
NYJ .523


AFC W
Den .926
SD .074


NFC N
Chi .037
Min .963


NFC S
Atl .048
Car .785
TB .167

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Taking A Crack At NFL Division Odds

This may be a miserable failure.

These odds were generated from:

- Actual Week 15 game lines
- Week 16 (and some Week 17 "games of the year") advance game lines
- Projected Week 17 game lines for Cle-Pit, Jax-Bal, Mia-NYJ, NE-Buf, Car-NO, Oak-TB, StL-Atl

Also, you may notice there are no wild card percentages here. Hey, they don't offer betting lines for wild card berths, and I wasn't doing this for purely academic purposes.

AFC E
Mia .323
NE .189
NYJ .488


AFC N
Pit .840
Bal .160


AFC W
Den .961
SD .039


NFC N
Chi .078
GB .009
Min .913


NFC S
Atl .039
Car .580
TB .381

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

10/28 Update (I think)

I feel slightly less confident about my in-game win probability estimates than pre-game ones, but here goes:





WS%
Tampa Bay


.130
Philadelphia


.870





Phi in 5


.598
Phi in 6


.176
Phi in 7


.096





Tam in 7


.130

Monday, October 27, 2008

10/27 Update and Breakdown





WS%
Tampa Bay


.143
Philadelphia


.857





Phi in 5


.558
Phi in 6


.193
Phi in 7


.106





Tam in 7


.143

Saturday, October 25, 2008

10/26 Update and Breakdown





WS%
Tampa Bay


.338
Philadelphia


.662





Phi in 5


.284
Phi in 6


.218
Phi in 7


.160





Tam in 6


.122
Tam in 7


.216

Thursday, October 23, 2008

10/24 Update





WS%
Tampa Bay


.516
Philadelphia


.484

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

10/23 Update





WS%
Tampa Bay


.376
Philadelphia


.624

Simple Excel Calculator

A few people have asked for a simple Excel file that takes the estimated odds for each game of a 7-game series and converts it into the probability of one team winning the series. I uploaded one here, for anyone who's interested.

Monday, October 20, 2008

World Series Update

The offshore sportsbooks opened Tampa as a 58% favorite in the World Series. Most or all of the difference between that number and mine is due to Brett Myers; I've bet on Myers in virtually every game he's started this year, so clearly I have a higher opinion of the wifebeater than the market does.





WS%
Tampa Bay


.545
Philadelphia


.455

Sunday, October 19, 2008

10/19 Update

I edited the World Series numbers to reflect the greater advantage the sports betting market is placing on the AL entrant. I'm not sure anyone really knows how to measure the gap between the leagues now, but my guess is it's somewhere in between my previous estimates and the current World Series lines.




Lg% WS%
Boston

.467 .265
Tampa Bay

.533 .290





Philadelphia


.445

Thursday, October 16, 2008

10/17 Update




Lg% WS%
Boston

.235 .131
Tampa Bay

.765 .399





Philadelphia

1.000 .470

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

10/16 Update




Lg% WS%
Boston

.122 .068
Tampa Bay

.878 .458





Philadelphia


.474

Kazmir Starts Game 5

I actually don't think this is a pointless move. Yes, Kazmir and Shields were both going to start two ALCS games either way, and their home/road splits this year aren't statistically significant. However, Kazmir is a lefty whose weakness is allowing home runs. If you can choose to have a giant left field wall for only one of these two pitchers, Kaz is the pick.

That said, this didn't make much of a difference in the odds:




Lg% WS%
Boston

.122 .068
Tampa Bay

.878 .460





Philadelphia

.899 .426
Los Angeles (N)

.101 .045

10/15 Update




Lg% WS%
Boston

.123 .069
Tampa Bay

.877 .460





Philadelphia

.899 .426
Los Angeles (N)

.101 .045

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

10/14 Update




Lg% WS%
Boston

.318 .178
Tampa Bay

.682 .358





Philadelphia

.899 .419
Los Angeles (N)

.101 .045

Monday, October 13, 2008

10/13 Update




Lg% WS%
Boston

.532 .301
Tampa Bay

.468 .247





Philadelphia

.702 .322
Los Angeles (N)

.298 .130

Sunday, October 12, 2008

10/12 Update




Lg% WS%
Boston

.532 .300
Tampa Bay

.468 .246





Philadelphia

.809 .371
Los Angeles (N)

.191 .083

Friday, October 10, 2008

10/11 Update




Lg% WS%
Boston

.679 .382
Tampa Bay

.321 .169





Philadelphia

.809 .367
Los Angeles (N)

.191 .082

Thursday, October 9, 2008

10/10 Update

Updates:

- Phillies win Game 1
- Mike Lowell ruled out for ALCS




Lg% WS%
Boston

.504 .285
Tampa Bay

.496 .263





Philadelphia

.670 .308
Los Angeles (N)

.330 .145

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

NLCS Rotations Set

Also replacing Takashi Saito on the LAD roster with Hong-Chih Kuo:




Lg% WS%
Boston

.520 .295
Tampa Bay

.480 .256





Philadelphia

.542 .249
Los Angeles (N)

.458 .200

ALCS Rotations Set




Lg% WS%
Boston

.520 .296
Tampa Bay

.480 .256





Philadelphia

.529 .243
Los Angeles (N)

.471 .206

Monday, October 6, 2008

10/7 Update




Lg% WS%
Boston

.518 .294
Tampa Bay

.482 .257





Philadelphia

.529 .243
Los Angeles (N)

.471 .206

10/6 Update



DS% Lg% WS%
Boston
.765 .416 .231
Tampa Bay
.822 .408 .216
Chicago (A)
.178 .065 .025
Los Angeles (A)
.235 .111 .053










Philadelphia

.529 .260
Los Angeles (N)

.471 .215

Saturday, October 4, 2008

Sunday Update



DS% Lg% WS%
Boston
.927 .493 .277
Tampa Bay
.911 .442 .236
Chicago (A)
.089 .032 .012
Los Angeles (A)
.073 .033 .016










Philadelphia
.763 .402 .193





Milwaukee
.237 .106 .046
Los Angeles

.492 .219

Friday, October 3, 2008

Saturday Update

Changes:

- Derek Lowe starting Game 4 on short rest



DS% Lg% WS%
Boston
.927 .493 .274
Tampa Bay
.911 .442 .234
Chicago (A)
.089 .032 .012
Los Angeles (A)
.073 .033 .016










Philadelphia
.877 .457 .220
Chicago (N)
.117 .062 .030
Milwaukee
.123 .055 .024
Los Angeles
.883 .426 .190

Thursday, October 2, 2008

Friday Update



DS% Lg% WS%
Boston
.762 .417 .232
Tampa Bay
.788 .392 .207
Chicago (A)
.212 .077 .030
Los Angeles (A)
.238 .114 .054










Philadelphia
.877 .456 .225
Chicago (N)
.127 .067 .033
Milwaukee
.123 .055 .024
Los Angeles
.873 .422 .193

Buehrle Starting ALDS Game Five

In his BP article today, Nate Silver makes the excellent point that the White Sox will probably bring Mark Buehrle back for Game 5of the ALDS on full rest, starting their "ace" while getting an additional lefty in the series against the left-leaning Rays.

I don't buy into the notion that Kazmir will also start Game 5; the Rays could have simply given him the Game 1 start on a week's rest and didn't do it.

Anyway, here's an update to reflect Chicago's rotation plans. Note that their chances of winning actually go down:



DS% Lg% WS%
Boston
.762 .431 .241
Tampa Bay
.640 .318 .168
Chicago (A)
.360 .131 .051
Los Angeles (A)
.238 .119 .057










Philadelphia
.689 .352 .176
Chicago (N)
.328 .176 .089
Milwaukee
.311 .137 .062
Los Angeles
.672 .335 .156

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Thursday Update



DS% Lg% WS%
Boston
.762 .432 .241
Tampa Bay
.630 .313 .166
Chicago (A)
.370 .135 .052
Los Angeles (A)
.238 .119 .057










Philadelphia
.688 .351 .176
Chicago (N)
.328 .176 .090
Milwaukee
.312 .138 .062
Los Angeles
.672 .335 .156

Pregame Update

Changes:
- Carl Crawford activated
- J.D. Drew activated
- Mike Lowell activated



DS% Lg% WS%
Boston
.553 .314 .175
Tampa Bay
.630 .323 .171
Chicago (A)
.370 .139 .054
Los Angeles (A)
.447 .224 .107










Philadelphia
.543 .272 .139
Chicago (N)
.520 .284 .147
Milwaukee
.457 .200 .092
Los Angeles
.480 .245 .116

PSA

Betting recommendations for the playoffs will be conducted over here.

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Wednesday Update

Changes:

- AL Central finalized
- Rafael Furcal added to Dodgers lineup



DS% Lg% WS%
Boston
.534 .301 .168
Tampa Bay
.621 .316 .167
Chicago (A)
.379 .143 .055
Los Angeles (A)
.466 .240 .114










Philadelphia
.543 .272 .139
Chicago (N)
.520 .284 .147
Milwaukee
.457 .200 .092
Los Angeles
.480 .245 .117

Why I Hate The Cubs And Angels

I don't, really. I grew up in Chicago and have been a Cubs fan for 15 years. However, I can see how you'd get this idea from my numbers, which are well off from the betting markets and pundits' predictions. What's going on?

Cubs

The Cubs are the best team in the NL, but the gap is not that big.

Offensively, Chicago led the NL in runs this year by a wide margin, but that overstates the case in their favor. The Cubs were projected to score fewer runs than both the Phillies and Brewers this year. That matters, because teams regress to toward their preseason expectations. Going forward, we expect the Cubs to have a slightly better offense than Philly and Milwaukee, but only by about .2 runs/game. The Dodgers lagged far behind in offense, but that's mostly because they spent a large portion of the year starting Andruw Jones, Juan Pierre, and Angel Berroa in place of Manny Ramirez and Rafael Furcal. You could argue that their current lineup is as good as any in the NL field.

As for pitching, it's easy to forget that the Cubs' Game 1 starter had ERAs of 4.80 and 4.72 as a one-inning reliever the past two years, or that Carlos Zambrano now has the peripherals of a 4.60 ERA pitcher. Fortunately for the Cubs, they have maybe the best starting pitcher in baseball right now...and they're relegating him to one start in the NLDS, because they're idiots. Simply naming Harden the Game 1 starter would improve Chicago's chances of winning the World Series by a full percentage point, but that would be too easy for Lou Piniella.

Looking at the BP Adjusted Standings, we see that the Cubs are a 95-win team playing against three teams in the 87-89 range, all of whom are managing their rotations better. That adds up to much less than a 40% chance to advance to the World Series.

Angels

The Angels are certainly not the best team in the AL. You won't find any metric besides W-L record that puts them ahead of the Red Sox or Rays. In fact, they're not just worse than those two teams, they're worse across the board, unable to match either team in offense, defense, or pitching.

Anaheim had the run differential of an 88-win team this year, and the peripherals of an 84-win team. You can argue until you're blue in the face about their "ability" to win close games, but the truth is that this was a fluke season; the Angels may have been the luckiest team in MLB history.

How can a team be built to win a disproportionate number of close games? A strong bullpen? The Blue Jays had a 2.94 relief ERA this year (wow) and they went 24-32 in one-run games. The Dodgers, third in bullpen ERA, went 19-24. Meanwhile, the Rangers--who had MLB's worst bullpen ERA and a losing record to boot--were a robust 28-18 in one-run contests. San Francisco's pen may have been the worst in the majors after park adjustments; they went 31-21 in one-run games, and 41-69 in all others.

What about batters delivering timely hits? The Twins were by far the best clutch hitting team in the league this year: they batted .280 overall, but a whopping .306 with runners in scoring position, which is the only reason they're still in this thing. That plus Joe Nathan's 1.34 ERA led to a 26-25 record in one-run games.

This "ability" is a backward-looking measure, like clutch hitting. It's easy to name last year's best clutch hitters, but nobody can identify next year's. Similarly, you can tell which teams have overperformed this year, but not who will do it in the future--and the future includes the playoffs.

The Diamondbacks were 2007's poster children for overperformance after going 90-72 with a -20 run differential. This year, they improved that differential to +14, yet fell to 82-80--right in line with expectations. The carryover is a mirage.

That's basically it--the Angels are clearly the third-best team in this field, and their odds reflect it. Their chances would be even worse if they didn't have home field advantage and only one game against Josh Beckett.

Tuesday Update

Changes:

White Sox win their first play-in game


Div% WC%
DS% Lg% WS%
Boston .000 1.000
.534 .299 .167
Tampa Bay 1.000 .000
.613 .312 .164







Chicago (A) .572 .000
.217 .082 .031
Minnesota .428 .000
.170 .069 .031







Los Angeles (A) 1.000 .000
.466 .238 .113














Philadelphia 1.000 .000
.543 .277 .141







Chicago (N) 1.000 .000
.538 .293 .151
Milwaukee .000 1.000
.457 .205 .094







Los Angeles 1.000 .000
.462 .224 .106

Monday, September 29, 2008

Beckett Injury Update

(Note: Ben Sheets is also out for the playoffs, but I didn't have him in the latest iteration of the numbers anyway, so there's no change for Milwaukee.)

Apparently Josh Beckett is hurting. The Red Sox will try to have him start Game 3, but nobody's sure that will happen.

Assuming Beckett returns in time for the ALCS, I have two sets of alternative odds. The first is for Beckett starting Game 3:


Div% WC%
DS% Lg% WS%
Boston .000 1.000
.534 .298 .166
Tampa Bay 1.000 .000
.612 .311 .164







Chicago (A) .324 .000
.123 .046 .018
Minnesota .676 .000
.265 .107 .048







Los Angeles (A) 1.000 .000
.466 .237 .113














Philadelphia 1.000 .000
.543 .277 .141







Chicago (N) 1.000 .000
.538 .293 .151
Milwaukee .000 1.000
.457 .205 .094







Los Angeles 1.000 .000
.462 .224 .105


Next, Beckett missing the ALDS altogether:


Div% WC%
DS% Lg% WS%
Boston .000 1.000
.494 .276 .154
Tampa Bay 1.000 .000
.612 .312 .165







Chicago (A) .324 .000
.123 .047 .018
Minnesota .676 .000
.265 .108 .048







Los Angeles (A) 1.000 .000
.506 .258 .122














Philadelphia 1.000 .000
.543 .277 .142







Chicago (N) 1.000 .000
.538 .293 .151
Milwaukee .000 1.000
.457 .205 .094







Los Angeles 1.000 .000
.462 .224 .106