Friday, December 14, 2007

What's On Tap For 2008

- I'm moving off Blogger and onto "real" hosting. If you have the Blogger address bookmarked, please adjust it to www.baseballplayoffodds.com, which currently redirects to this page.

- Right now, I'm working with someone on developing a Monte Carlo simulation like the ones you see on BP and Coolstandings, only better. I can't promise anything about the functionality yet, but the inputs will definitely be more accurate, since I can better account for injuries, trades, and updated player/team forecasts.

- For the playoffs and late in the regular season, the Monte Carlo simulation can give way to a mathematical analysis based on estimated odds for each individual game. Among other things, this should eliminate the problem of variance in quality of starting pitchers. (If your team is starting Johan Santana and Jose Lima in its two remaining games, they should be assigned winning chances of 65% and 35%, not 50% for each game.)

If nothing else, it should be interesting to look at.

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