Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Updated Projections

My predicted 2008 standings generated some criticism, fair and otherwise, but no one mentioned one error I'm going to correct here: I had the average AL team winning 80 games and the average NL team 82.

Each team plays a maximum of 18 interleague games, so these numbers shouldn't stray far from 81, but clearly the AL is the much stronger league at this point, so I re-ran the numbers with the AL averaging 81.8 wins and the NL 80.3, plus some number tweaking and roster updates through the signing of Fukudome:

NYY 92 Cle 88 LAA 84
Bos 91 Det 86 Oak 79
Tam 84 Min 84 Sea 77
Tor 84 ChW 76 Tex 72
Bal 73 KC 72

NYM 90 ChC 85 SD 87
Phi 87 Mil 83 LAD 84
Atl 83 Cin 82 Ari 79
Fla 74 StL 75 Col 79
Was 74 Hou 76 SF 74

Pit 74

Interesting how the 2008 White Sox project stronger than the 2007 squad even though they're coming off a season with 18 fewer wins. Some possible theories on why:

- Bounce-back seasons by Mark Buehrle and Javier Vazquez
- Ditching Scott Podsednik and Darin Erstad (and adding Carlos Quentin)
- Inaccurate inputs by me

Rumor has it that Fukudome is considering wearing a jersey that reads "Kosuke" much like Ichiro. I wonder how much that will hurt merchandise sales?

No comments: