Monday, December 31, 2007

Updated NFL Probabilities

Team Conf SB



NE 65.4 54.4
Ind 22.2 15.9
SD 5.7 3.7
Pit 2.4 1.5
Jax 3.7 2.5
Ten 0.6 0.2



Dal 57.8 13.4
GB 24.3 4.9
Sea 7.7 1.5
TB 4.3 0.7
NYG 3.6 0.7
Was 2.3 0.4

I think if there's one general lesson about playoff futures betting, it's that you don't want to bother betting on a 6 seed to win the Super Bowl; the Redskins are going off around 50-1 when they should be 250-1. By betting the Skins game-by-game, you'll get a much better price than 50-1.

Actually, maybe another lesson is not to bet an NFC team to win the Super Bowl this year; only the Cowboys have a payoff that's close to fair odds.

(edited to fix rounding errors)

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