Just noticed this article from Clay Davenport, where he goes into detail about different ways to handicap the World Series.
Two things to take from it:
1. His 73.6% Red Sox estimate (from before Game 1) squares up pretty well with mine.
2. The gap in percentages across different methods shows just how dangerous it can be to blindly follow a postseason odds report that doesn't use the proper inputs.
Kudos to Clay for putting forth the effort.