Saturday, October 6, 2007

A Quirk

You may have noticed that the current incarnation of the playoff odds indicates the Rockies have the edge over the D-Backs in the NLCS, but Arizona has a better shot to win the World Series once they get there. What gives?

It is very likely Arizona will set up their World Series rotation with Brandon Webb starting Games 1, 4, and 7. For them not to do so would be both colossally stupid and inconsistent with Bob Melvin's track record. (It's actually possible they will do this in the NLCS as well. Right now, I've set a low probability that Webb goes three games in the NLCS, but this may change based on developments, and take Arizona's NL% up with it.)

Meanwhile, I don't see the Rockies doing the same with Jeff Francis, and anyway, Francis is no Brandon Webb. Colorado has a more balanced rotation, which doesn't give them any additional help in a short series.

Really, this D-Backs team is reminiscent of the '01 incarnation, except they're missing the second stud SP and the big bopper in the middle of the lineup. Of course, those are some big shoes to fill, but if Webb can win three games, Arizona may have a puncher's chance.

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