Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Number Tweaking

Aaron Cook is in as the Game 4 starter, and Tim Wakefield is out. How does this affect the odds?

Assuming Jon Lester starts Game 4 and Cook is on a tight pitch count:

Team WS%

Boston 72.2
Colorado 27.8

On the plus side for Colorado, Game 4 is their best chance to actually be favored in any individual game in the Series. I have the line estimated at Colorado -103.

There are all kinds of other possibilities if Terry Francona is willing to throw Josh Beckett in games 1, 4, and 7, but I see no evidence that this will happen.

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