Sunday, October 21, 2007

Efficient Market? Yeah, Right

Before Game 6, the consensus of the exchange markets was that the Red Sox were roughly 33.5% to win the AL and 24% to win the World Series. These numbers squared pretty well with mine, and pegged Boston as over 70% to win the World Series should they get there.

Now? Those numbers are around 62% and 39%. After winning a 12-2 blowout, Boston's chances of beating the Rockies go down to 63%? Huh? And the Indians, who were dogs in every game of the ALCS, are at 38% and 25%--indicating they would be bigger favorites in the World Series than the Red Sox?

The market may be full of savvy bettors, but from where I stand, it still looks like they can't do math. And I still say the Red Sox series line gets bet to at least -230 before the first pitch of Game 1. I'm not so sure on the Indians.

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