Sunday, October 14, 2007

10/15 Update

Team LCS% WS%



Boston 57.0 42.3
Cleveland 43.0 28.1



Arizona 5.2 1.7
Colorado 94.8 27.9

Wait a minute, am I actually suggesting that not one but BOTH AL teams have a better chance of winning the World Series than the Rockies, who are up 3-0 in the NLCS?

Yup. 20 wins in 21 games is something special, but this team is still inferior to the Indians and a far cry from the Red Sox--Boston rates as nearly a 3-1 favorite should they get there.

Am I being unfair to Colorado? Possibly, but I'm using the same numbers I did for previous interleague games, which matched the estimated World Series line (AL -210 / NL +210) when the playoffs opened. Yes, the Rockies won 90 games, but they had healthy starting pitching for most of the season. Can you really imagine a World Champion team with Josh Fogg penciled in to start two Series games?

Colorado opened the night trading at 38 (sell) / 42 (buy) to win the World Series on WSEX. (For those unfamiliar with WSEX, this basically means they have between 38% and 42% chance to win, and if you disagree you can buy or sell Rockies futures.) That line has already been bet down to 35/39, but I think it will come down even more before the first pitch of the Fall Classic.

2 comments:

craig r said...

I am assuming that these numbers reflect Wakefield going in game 4, correct?

craig

j holz said...

correct.